EOG

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dan_s
Posts: 37299
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EOG

Post by dan_s »

The headlines look good. I will get into the details tomorrow. - Dan
PS: I had a root canal this morning (which went well) but my brain is starting to give out on me now.

EOG Resources Reports 2010 Results and Increases Dividend
- Delivers 9.5 Percent Year-Over-Year Production Growth (slightly above guidance)
- Fourth Quarter Crude Oil Revenues Surpass Natural Gas Revenues
- Records Consistent Drilling Results Across 120-Mile Trend in South Texas Eagle Ford Crude Oil Window and Drills First Well in Liquids-Rich Natural Gas Window
- Adds Permian Basin Wolfcamp Play to Suite of High Quality Crude Oil Assets
- Reports Increased Confidence in Colorado DJ Basin Niobrara Crude Oil Play
- Notes Strong Production Results from Bradford County Marcellus Shale
- Continues Advancement of Kitimat LNG Project
- Increases Total Company Proved Reserves 8.5 Percent at Attractive Finding Costs
- Targets 49 Percent Total Liquids Production Growth and 9.5 Percent Total Company Production Growth in 2011 (This is what I love. EOG is committed to changing the mix and getting a more "oily".)
- Raises Dividend on Common Stock for 12th Time in 12 Years
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37299
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EOG

Post by dan_s »

Reuters putting a negative spin on it. IMHO these young analysts put way too much weight on reported earnings per share. The non-cash mark-to-market adjustments required by GAAP accounting rules are extremely distortive and must be ignored. That is why we focus on cash flow per share, production growth and reserve growth. - Dan

Feb 17 (Reuters) - EOG Resources Inc (EOG.N) reported an 87 percent decrease in quarterly profit as the U.S. oil and gas company took noncash charges for the reduced value of some natural gas assets and financial commodity contracts.

The company also said it plans to sell about $1 billion worth of natural gas and midstream assets this year to help offset any gap between cash flow and 2011 capital expenditures of between $6.4 billion and $6.6 billion.

Profit in the fourth-quarter was $53.7 million, or 21 cents per share, compared with $400.4 million, or $1.58 per share, in the year-earlier period. (Reporting by Braden Reddall; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37299
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EOG

Post by dan_s »

Funny how analysts changed their tone after the share price moved up over $2 in after-hours trading. - Dan

EOG Resources beats by $0.10, beats on revs; raises annual quarterly dividend 3% to $0.6:27 PM ET 2/17/11

Briefing.com
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 1.6% year/year to $1.79 bln vs the $1.51 bln consensus. EOG is targeting total co production growth of 9.5% in 2011. Total liquids production is forecast to increase 49%, comprised of 55 percent crude oil growth and 34 percent natural gas liquids growth. In North America, natural gas production is expected to decrease 5% from 2010, reflecting the impact of producing property sales and a weak natural gas pricing environment. Estimated exploration and production expenditures for 2011 will range from $6.4-6.6 billion, including exploration, development and production facilities and midstream expenditures. To offset any funding gap between estimated cash flows and capital expenditures, EOG expects to sell ~$1 billion of natural gas and midstream assets during 2011. With a continued focus on the balance sheet, EOG plans to maintain a net debt-to-total capitalization ratio below 35 percent at both year-end 2011 and 2012.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37299
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EOG

Post by dan_s »

I'm still listening to the 4th quarter CC but here are some points about EOG:
> 80% of 2011 capital expenditures will be focused on increasing liquids production
> Oil and NGL production forecast to increase by 49% in 2011 with mix improving to more oil


> EOG has large leasehold positions in "Sweet Spot" of most North American resource play. Very good leasehold in the Eagle Ford Shale. < Eagle Ford has the best IRR per well in NA and where EOG will be spending the bulk of its capital.

> Wolfcamp & Niobrara have incredible upside, with plans to be major contributors to EOG growth by 2013

> EOG's Marcellus acreage is much better than they thought it was just six months ago. Recent wells in Bradford County are coming on at 14-15 MMcfepd.

> EOG's core growth areas have some of the best rates of returns they have ever seen (60% to 100%)

> 35% of 2011 natural gas is hedged at average of $5.09/mcf. Very little oil is hedged.

> Plans are in place to fund capital expenditures from operating cash flows and sale of non-core assets ($560 million in asset sales expected to close in 2nd quarter)

HUGE for Texas: The Eagle Ford now appears to have much better investment returns than the Bakken (which is darn good)
> This will be the No. 1 growth area for the Texas economy for years to come
> Trucking companies, pipeline companies, oilfield services, drillers are going to make a ton of money here.

EOG CC is now over. You should all listen to the replay. You will learn a lot about what is going on in the industry.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37299
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: EOG

Post by dan_s »

I have updated my forecast model for EOG and I'm raising my current Fair Value estimate for EOG to $125/share. A reasonable 12-month price target is much higher if you believe as I do that oil is going over $100/bbl this year.

EOG has at least five years of double digit production and reserve growth locked in with their current development projects.

The Balance Sheet is rock solid and this is a growth machine.

Kim is now in Vietnam. It may be a few days before she can post the new forecasts to the website.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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