ATPG RECOVER???? Or DUMP

[rcgord]

Does anyone think ATPG has a chance to recover or will it continue to be tied with BP and other gulf energy plays.

I would like to hear what others think or was everyone smart enough to sell before now. Anyone adding?

[dan_s]

Go to the website and click on the Sweet 16 Tab then the ATPG logo for my current thoughts and forecast.

ATPG should make it and production will ramp up with the completion of MC 941 #3. That said there is no telling what the share price will do.

Dan

[adamlloyd]

Today's announcement from the BOEM was the final straw for me, so I decided to DUMP while I still had a very modest profit. What does "adequately respond" mean? It's just too unpredictable.

"Deep-water oil drilling in U.S. territory will remain suspended until explorers prove they have ships and other equipment ready to handle potential spills, the U.S. offshore energy regulator said.

More than three months after a federal moratorium on deep- water exploration was lifted, drilling permits are being withheld because “not a single operator has demonstrated” that it has the means to adequately respond to a blowout and spill, Melissa Schwartz, a spokeswoman for the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, said today in an e- mailed statement."

Adam

[rcgord]

I have also been thinking of dumping for several months, but to date have not.
No idea what going on with company, will not answer/reply to phone calls

VERY STRANGE

Has anyone else connected?????

[setliff]

i plan on holding as long as the technicals hold up, ie support at 15.5ish. the article by barrons' reinforced my thoughts.

i look forward to the house committee on energy getting into this.

[ghrcap]

I will be attending EnerCom's conference in SF next week to get a read on Al Reese's latest thoughts on the political permit quagmire. The shorts are obviously being squeezed lately to the joy of long suffering longs, but what is a fair price in here for the stock at 28,000 bpd production if the next permit does not come in March as Reese speculated previously, but drags on into the summer or fall? In a counter attack by shorts, at what price would the stock support? I'll share any insights gained right here.

[setliff]

i have moved my support area up to ~17.5-18.

[bobs]

I'll be at the SF conference also to listen to the break out session comments. I've been lightening up but still have a big position at least for me.

[dan_s]

Still a lot of risk with ATPG (they have a ton of debt) but the stock does have upside if they can get government approval to complete more wells into Telemark Hub.
Prior to the BP blowout, I thought ATPG had a shot at $50/share.
I still hang on to a few Jan 2012 calls.

Warning: This one is not for the retirement nest egg. This is HIGH RISK.

[ghrcap]

George Morris said today in the breakout session the containment solution from Helix is equal in capability to that offered by the Exxon-led consortium and equal in standing in the eyes of the BOEM. He thinks the gut feeling of Al Reese, that a permit for the third well into Telemark will be granted by the end of March, is not yet out of the question. Sec. Salazar is rumored to be coming to Houston Friday to perhaps say something positive on the permit situation. The Street is in the "show me" mood with ATP and this is not a rumor that I would advance as buyable. The Q4 exit and current 25,000 boepd production unveiled by Morris was a mild disappointment, but not a surprise given that no unofficial guidance from Reese's lips has ever proved to be too conservative, despite Reese's attempts to couch it as such.

Following the breakout session with GMXR and their very detailed set of presentation slides, I see some spec value and dip buy potential in that issue. They did a recent $4.75 secondary to acquire some nice looking Bakken and Niobrara oil properties. They are very well hedged on NG for 2011 and 2012 at $6ish in E. TX and may be sitting on some deep oil potential in the Smackover there.

[dan_s]

GMXR is on our Watch List and I think it looks very promising, especially for those of you that believe NG prices will rebound in Q4. Currently, NG is not getting any support from the higher oil prices. I can see it dipping below $3.50 this Spring. I do believe NG prices will rebound in 2012 but I'm far from optimistic.