Winter starts in about six weeks

[dan_s]

This winter's forecast is bullish for natural gas prices.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... h/60277878

[bearcatbob]

FWIW - note the commentary on nat gas and the winter forecast.

http://energy-musings.com/node/406#1

So far it has been a very warm fall here in NE Ohio. A trend in motion is a trend to notice.

[dan_s]

It has been HOT in Texas. 96 today in Sugar Land. That means our gas fired peaking plants are still sucking down a lot of gas.

The weather prior to November is almost meaningless. Did you read the AccuWeather winter forecast. I put the link in the newsletter.

[bearcatbob]

Did you read the Browning forecast? I did read the Accu.

All I can tell you is that having lived in NE Ohio all of my life - a fall trend tends to continue. I remember one year where I played in a Labor soft ball tournament and froze it was so cold. That winter the snow came early and stayed until like March. Last year golf continued through December and winter was mild. Golf this week has been in the 80s. Tomorrow will be in the 60s. Simply put - anyone counting on a cold winter to get rich or avoid trouble should not be encouraged.

We do still have the AC on tonight.

[k1f]

Dan,

It's 70F-80F this week here in Massachusetts. You've based your estimates for nat gas on a "normal" winter.
How much would your forecast for gas be cut back if we have another record-breaking warm
year like last year and this one?

[dan_s]

http://www.americanoilman.com/

Go to the link above and click on Gas Storage in upper left.

Keep in mind that gas production is down 2.5 to 3.0 Bcf per day and demand is up about the same from a year ago.

Last winter was impacted by the Super El Nino. That will not repeat this year. The Pacific Ocean is much cooler.