Iraq refuses to cooperate w/ production cuts

[k1f]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... SKCN12O02S

[bearcatbob]

Iraq will do what Iran tells it to do.

[dan_s]

I agree. For all practical purposes Iraq no longer exists. When Obama pulled all of our troops out of Iraq, he handed the southern half of Iraq to Iran. The Kurds should end up with the northern third of Iraq and the western part will be a war torn piece of crap that no one wants. Over 400,000 will be killed by ISIS and millions will have lost their homes; moving north to screw up Europe.

[k1f]

Meanwhile, back in the real world, what if anything does Iraq's avowed policy do to likely production and price trends?

[dan_s]

If you watched my latest podcast ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXU1X-- ... e=youtu.be ) and watched David Pursell's video ( https://vimeo.com/187401085/833dc64725 ) you know that the global oil markets are back in balance now and that OECD inventories should be back to normal by the middle of 2017 no matter what OPEC does.

If Saudi Arabia agrees to make production cuts and Russia just agrees to cap production at their current rate, oil price should move quickly to $60/bbl range.

As I have been saying since OPEC announced plans to put forward a plan to curb supply on September 30, I see oil flopping around in the $50 range until details of the plan are announced on November 30.

Iran and Iraq are posturing to get better quotas, plus just about everyone expects them to cheat anyway. Saudi Arabia controls OPEC. If they get their friends in the Gulf Region to make production cuts then it will work. It is definitely in the best interest of all OPEC members and Russia to curb production because lower exports mean more money coming to each country. Saudi Arabia's wealth is declining month-after-month and they are getting tired of watching the bank account draw down.