Watch the daily update at http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
I want to be CRYSTAL CLEAR that all we need is a NORMAL WINTER to get the U.S. natural gas market back into balance. The maps that Joe is showing on his daily update are not his maps they are from NCEP, a national service.
During a NORMAL WINTER the draws from natural gas storage begin the week of Thanksgiving. Mild weather in October and November does not mean we are going to have a warmer than normal winter. December weather is the most important month for natural gas.
Winter to begin this weekend
Winter to begin this weekend
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
One of the reasons I am more bullish on natural gas is that we now use a lot more gas to generate "base load" electricity than we did just a few years ago. This is one reason we NEED more gas in storage. If a cold December pushes storage back to the 5-year average, we should see gas prices move higher. - Dan
Old and worn out, U.S. coal-fired power plants fall prey to gas: Kemp - Reuters News
14-Nov-2016 15:49:20
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's administration has been blamed for the closure of a record number of coal-fired power plants across and heavy job losses in the mining industry.
Since the current administration began in January 2009, more than 400 coal-fired power units have closed across the United States and around 33,000 coal-mining jobs have disappeared.
Coal now accounts for only a third of electricity generated in the United States down from almost half when the president took office.
The administration's opponents criticise it for waging a "war on coal" to support cleaner forms of energy including wind, solar and natural gas.
The administration's supporters credit it with forcing the closure of power plants that were a major source of air pollution as well as greenhouse gases (http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT5xUI).
But the reality is most of the coal-fired units that have closed since the president took office were very old and inefficient and would likely have closed anyway.
OLD AND WORN OUT
The average coal-fired power unit closed during the Obama administration started generating electricity in 1960 and almost all of them began generating before 1971.
So most of the retired units were already over 50 years old and had been producing power much longer than the typical generating unit (http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT8oNf).
The average retired unit had a capacity of just 80-100 megawatts, much smaller than the 500-1,000 megawatts now considered the minimum efficient size for a coal plant.
Aging power plants require much more maintenance to keep them running safely which means they are typically available to generate for far fewer hours each year than more modern ones.
Most components in a coal-fired power plant will show wear and tear as a result of prolonged operation and eventually need replacing ("Coal-fired electric power plant life extension", Martin Marietta, 1986).
Power plant components are subjected to high pressures and temperatures, repeated cycles of heating and cooling, constant exposure to steam and corrosive impurities including sulphur.
The result is a range of damage including creep, fatigue, erosion and corrosion.
Boiler tubes and drums, main steam lines, turbine blades and forgings, scrubbers and generator winding supports are among the expensive items that need replacing.
Power companies must make a commercial decision whether to incur large capital costs to extend the life of existing coal plants or replace them with other sources of generation.
MORE FLEXIBLE WITH GAS
In practice, it has been cheaper to replace coal-fired power plants with combined-cycle gas turbines which are quicker and cheaper to build, easier to run, and offer more generation flexibility.
CCGTs can ramp their production up and down much faster than coal-fired units making them much more suitable for load-following and two-shifting operations (running during the day while switching off at night).
CCGTs are therefore much more attractive for generators needing flexibility to operate in deregulated wholesale power markets.
Most new thermal power plants built in the United States since the early 1990s have therefore been fuelled by gas and employ a CCGT design.
Cheaper gas prices thanks to the shale revolution have entrenched the advantage of gas-fired power generation even further.
Coal units might have survived if demand for electricity had continued growing, in which case it might have made sense to keep them running while building gas-fired power stations to meet incremental demand. But growth in electricity demand has been slowing for decades. Consumption has been essentially flat since 2007, according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In a stagnant electricity market, coal-fired power generation has been pitted head to head with natural gas, and lost.
CONTINUED DECLINE LIKELY
Most utilities and independent power producers have opted not to extend the life of coal fired units when the time for the next major refit has arrived.
The Obama administration's encouragement of more solar and wind generation, both by utilities and by households, has worsened the predicament for coal-fired generators.
Stricter pollution and emissions regulations for new power coal-fired power plants (finalised) and existing ones (currently being challenged in court) have added to the compliance burden for coal-fired plants. But most of those power plants would have retired in any case because it was no longer commercially viable to keep them running.
Coal retirements look set to continue in the medium term even if the forthcoming Trump administration ends the "war on coal".
The average age of coal-fired units still in operation is 39 years (the capacity-weighted average unit first operated in 1977).
By contrast, the average age of combined-cycle gas units is just 13 years (the median plant began generating in 2003).
Very few new coal-fired power units have been constructed in recent years and it is hard to see that changing unless gas prices rise significantly or the demand for electricity starts growing faster.
So the coal fleet will continue shrinking as existing plants reach the end of their lives and are replaced by other forms of generation.
John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst
Reuters
Old and worn out, U.S. coal-fired power plants fall prey to gas: Kemp - Reuters News
14-Nov-2016 15:49:20
John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's administration has been blamed for the closure of a record number of coal-fired power plants across and heavy job losses in the mining industry.
Since the current administration began in January 2009, more than 400 coal-fired power units have closed across the United States and around 33,000 coal-mining jobs have disappeared.
Coal now accounts for only a third of electricity generated in the United States down from almost half when the president took office.
The administration's opponents criticise it for waging a "war on coal" to support cleaner forms of energy including wind, solar and natural gas.
The administration's supporters credit it with forcing the closure of power plants that were a major source of air pollution as well as greenhouse gases (http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT5xUI).
But the reality is most of the coal-fired units that have closed since the president took office were very old and inefficient and would likely have closed anyway.
OLD AND WORN OUT
The average coal-fired power unit closed during the Obama administration started generating electricity in 1960 and almost all of them began generating before 1971.
So most of the retired units were already over 50 years old and had been producing power much longer than the typical generating unit (http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT8oNf).
The average retired unit had a capacity of just 80-100 megawatts, much smaller than the 500-1,000 megawatts now considered the minimum efficient size for a coal plant.
Aging power plants require much more maintenance to keep them running safely which means they are typically available to generate for far fewer hours each year than more modern ones.
Most components in a coal-fired power plant will show wear and tear as a result of prolonged operation and eventually need replacing ("Coal-fired electric power plant life extension", Martin Marietta, 1986).
Power plant components are subjected to high pressures and temperatures, repeated cycles of heating and cooling, constant exposure to steam and corrosive impurities including sulphur.
The result is a range of damage including creep, fatigue, erosion and corrosion.
Boiler tubes and drums, main steam lines, turbine blades and forgings, scrubbers and generator winding supports are among the expensive items that need replacing.
Power companies must make a commercial decision whether to incur large capital costs to extend the life of existing coal plants or replace them with other sources of generation.
MORE FLEXIBLE WITH GAS
In practice, it has been cheaper to replace coal-fired power plants with combined-cycle gas turbines which are quicker and cheaper to build, easier to run, and offer more generation flexibility.
CCGTs can ramp their production up and down much faster than coal-fired units making them much more suitable for load-following and two-shifting operations (running during the day while switching off at night).
CCGTs are therefore much more attractive for generators needing flexibility to operate in deregulated wholesale power markets.
Most new thermal power plants built in the United States since the early 1990s have therefore been fuelled by gas and employ a CCGT design.
Cheaper gas prices thanks to the shale revolution have entrenched the advantage of gas-fired power generation even further.
Coal units might have survived if demand for electricity had continued growing, in which case it might have made sense to keep them running while building gas-fired power stations to meet incremental demand. But growth in electricity demand has been slowing for decades. Consumption has been essentially flat since 2007, according to an analysis of data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In a stagnant electricity market, coal-fired power generation has been pitted head to head with natural gas, and lost.
CONTINUED DECLINE LIKELY
Most utilities and independent power producers have opted not to extend the life of coal fired units when the time for the next major refit has arrived.
The Obama administration's encouragement of more solar and wind generation, both by utilities and by households, has worsened the predicament for coal-fired generators.
Stricter pollution and emissions regulations for new power coal-fired power plants (finalised) and existing ones (currently being challenged in court) have added to the compliance burden for coal-fired plants. But most of those power plants would have retired in any case because it was no longer commercially viable to keep them running.
Coal retirements look set to continue in the medium term even if the forthcoming Trump administration ends the "war on coal".
The average age of coal-fired units still in operation is 39 years (the capacity-weighted average unit first operated in 1977).
By contrast, the average age of combined-cycle gas units is just 13 years (the median plant began generating in 2003).
Very few new coal-fired power units have been constructed in recent years and it is hard to see that changing unless gas prices rise significantly or the demand for electricity starts growing faster.
So the coal fleet will continue shrinking as existing plants reach the end of their lives and are replaced by other forms of generation.
John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst
Reuters
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates that US heating degree days this winter will be 13% more than last winter.
In its October STEO report, the EIA estimated that US natural gas prices will average $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.07 per MMBtu in 2017.
Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $3.25 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in November 2016. It also estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $3.64 per MMBtu this winter. However, its expects that harsh winter weather could support natural gas prices.
World Bank forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3 per MMBtu in 2017, and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2018.
The International Monetary Fund forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3 per MMBtu in 2017, $3.10 per MMBtu in 2018, and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2019.
In its October STEO report, the EIA estimated that US natural gas prices will average $2.51 per MMBtu in 2016 and $3.07 per MMBtu in 2017.
Aegent Energy Advisors estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $3.25 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in November 2016. It also estimates that US natural gas prices won’t exceed $3.64 per MMBtu this winter. However, its expects that harsh winter weather could support natural gas prices.
World Bank forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3 per MMBtu in 2017, and $3.50 per MMBtu in 2018.
The International Monetary Fund forecast that US natural gas prices will average $2.30 per MMBtu in 2016, $3 per MMBtu in 2017, $3.10 per MMBtu in 2018, and $3.30 per MMBtu in 2019.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
-
bearcatbob
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
This time the local forecast here in NE Ohio looks like it agrees. This week will continue to be a great fall golf week. Coming home today from the course my car thermometer was reading in the 60s. Next week the high temps are projected to be in the 40s. It is a significant change in trend. What comes next is what matters.
We need to see this change for real change. Perhaps next week is only a week off.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Tem ... ure30.aspx
We need to see this change for real change. Perhaps next week is only a week off.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Tem ... ure30.aspx
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
Just remember that last winter was caused by a "Super El Nino" that is now gone. Unless you are a "believer" in Al Gore, there will be a winter this year. Hang tough, Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out on this planet. The sun and the oceans control the weather on Earth, not CO2.
We are both old enough to remember rapidly changing weather in November. Can you remember the Dallas Cowboy's Ice Bowl game on Thanksgiving?
We are both old enough to remember rapidly changing weather in November. Can you remember the Dallas Cowboy's Ice Bowl game on Thanksgiving?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
-
bearcatbob
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
Somewhere around 1977 I played in a Labor Day softball tournament. At the evening barbecue we all frooze. My memory is that that year it snowed in early Novemember and the snow did not melt until March. That was a real winter.
For some reason the gassers - eg SWN - have really jumped. I suspect the weather forecast now appears favorable to the big money.
Part of me looks forward to a cold winter - the other part of me does not want to suffer it. Sunny December golf is a nice thing.
Bob
For some reason the gassers - eg SWN - have really jumped. I suspect the weather forecast now appears favorable to the big money.
Part of me looks forward to a cold winter - the other part of me does not want to suffer it. Sunny December golf is a nice thing.
Bob
Re: Winter to begin this weekend
NCEP maps now confirming first significant snow fall coming this weekend. Watch daily updates at http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
The reason that I like catching up on the weather at Joe's website is because he explains why the weather patterns change. For some reason, weather does interest me.
Other weather websites have forecasts, but they do not explain "why" their forecasts change.
Joe has been forecasting for months that this winter would start the week of Thanksgiving and that December would be colder than normal this year. It sure will help gas prices if he is right.
The reason that I like catching up on the weather at Joe's website is because he explains why the weather patterns change. For some reason, weather does interest me.
Other weather websites have forecasts, but they do not explain "why" their forecasts change.
Joe has been forecasting for months that this winter would start the week of Thanksgiving and that December would be colder than normal this year. It sure will help gas prices if he is right.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group