Watch daily updates at http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
> 11-15 day forecast is very bullish for natural gas and NGLs
> 16 day forecast for snow has snow cover over 60% of the U.S. by December 7, which is VERY BULLISH for natural gas.
> Possibility of a "Polar Vortex" dropping over the Great Lakes region in Mid-December is increasing.
Winter as of 11/21
Winter as of 11/21
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Winter as of 11/21
Dan
very bullish weather for natgas
I also use this website to watch the 4-week projections.
http://celsiusenergy.blogspot.com/
very bullish weather for natgas
I also use this website to watch the 4-week projections.
http://celsiusenergy.blogspot.com/
Re: Winter as of 11/21
Thanks for posting that website link. It is now one of my favorites.
I have been following Dr. Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell.com for over ten years. He is best described as a "Weather Historian". Over the years, I've learned a lot about how weather patterns evolve on this planet. Dr. Joe is one of the few long-range forecasters, which is not easy. His winter forecast has been out for several months and it looks like he is on target. Last years "Super El Nino" threw him off a bit. He was correct in forecasting a warmer than normal winter, but it was much warmer than anyone was expecting.
All energy sector investors should track the weather carefully. Put several weather websites in your favorites list and check them on a regular basis. The weather has a big impact on energy demand, especially natural gas. The large-cap upstream companies all have marketing departments that track the weather.
All it will take is one "Polar Vortex" and we will get a big spike in natural gas prices.
It is VERY IMPORTANT that all of you understand that natural gas and to a lesser extent NGL prices are set by regional market supply/demand. The U.S. natural gas market is MUCH TIGHTER than it was just ten months ago.
I have been following Dr. Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell.com for over ten years. He is best described as a "Weather Historian". Over the years, I've learned a lot about how weather patterns evolve on this planet. Dr. Joe is one of the few long-range forecasters, which is not easy. His winter forecast has been out for several months and it looks like he is on target. Last years "Super El Nino" threw him off a bit. He was correct in forecasting a warmer than normal winter, but it was much warmer than anyone was expecting.
All energy sector investors should track the weather carefully. Put several weather websites in your favorites list and check them on a regular basis. The weather has a big impact on energy demand, especially natural gas. The large-cap upstream companies all have marketing departments that track the weather.
All it will take is one "Polar Vortex" and we will get a big spike in natural gas prices.
It is VERY IMPORTANT that all of you understand that natural gas and to a lesser extent NGL prices are set by regional market supply/demand. The U.S. natural gas market is MUCH TIGHTER than it was just ten months ago.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Winter as of 11/21
https://www.wunderground.com/ is another weather website that I check on a regular basis. I click on "Maps & Radar" then "Forecast Maps" to see if they are trending toward what Joe Bastardi is forecasting.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
-
bearcatbob
Re: Winter as of 11/21
I have a friend here who runs a small nat gas exploration company in NE Ohio and Pa. He has always been critical of optimistic projections - until today.
He commented to me that the number of DUCs is being reduced. That with depletion which he said is science, made him a bit optimistic.
Ok Dan - what are the most leveraged NG plays - not the safest.
Bob
He commented to me that the number of DUCs is being reduced. That with depletion which he said is science, made him a bit optimistic.
Ok Dan - what are the most leveraged NG plays - not the safest.
Bob
Re: Winter as of 11/21
As I have been telling you guys for month now, the U.S. natural gas market is MUCH TIGHTER than it was a year ago. Falling production and rising demand tends to do that. The U.S. has almost no import capacity, except via pipes from Canada. Canada will have less gas to ship us this winter.
When gas in storage dips below the 5-year average, we will see gas spike to over $4.00/mcf. All it will take is one Polar Vortex.
When gas in storage dips below the 5-year average, we will see gas spike to over $4.00/mcf. All it will take is one Polar Vortex.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group