Sometime I just have to laugh

[dan_s]

The Sweet 16 was up 47% in 2016.

At our luncheon in Houston today, one of our members came up to me and said "Your Top 16 isn't doing very well this year."
It took a minute for his comment to register since I think the Sweet 16 is off to a good start and the outlook for the oil & gas industry is quite good these days.

Reminder: Stocks do not go up in a straight line, no matter how good the fundamentals are. I cannot pick which stocks are going to go up or down on any given day. If I could, I would not need you guys and I would be extremely rich.

As of today's close (1/25/2017) the Sweet 16 is up 1.79% YTD. If the assumptions that I am using about commodity prices are close to accurate, the Sweet 16 should have another very good year. The market is waiting on Q4 results and year-end reserve reports. They should be good for this group.

MY POINT: Stock do not go up each day, week or month. Look at any stocks chart and you will see what I mean.
----------------------------------
Another member said that he heard that EPG has lost a lot of members. Yes, our membership has declined over the last two years but it is now rebounding. In the 4th quarter we added 13 new members and we've already added 11 new members in January. Today we have around 400 members spread all over the world (8 countries).
EPG was founded in 2001. We have survived several oil price cycles and we are doing fine today. My goal is to get membership up to around 600 and keep it around that level. You can all help by spreading the word about our service.

[Orindakid]

My only thought is that based upon what I am seeing and studying, I am desperately freeing up cash to invest in several of your stock recommendations that I can see doubling this year. I wonder how much time this person spent actually studying what is going on.
Cheers.

[dan_s]

The best year of the Sweet 16 was 2010 when the group was up 54%. 2016 was the 3rd best year for the Sweet 16 since 2001 when I co-founded EPG with Kevin Hopkins.

In 2010 4 of the 16 stocks more than doubled.

I don't think we'll see many doubles in this group in 2017, but I do think my valuations are realistic (assuming oil, gas and NGL prices do what they should).

[mkarpoff]

Over the years I have had subscriptions to probably 6 or 7 financial newsletters. They all promised to make me tons of money. EPG has made me considerably more money than all of them combined; not even close. If you and your wife are ever in NY, I owe you a steak dinner.

[dan_s]

That's why you pay the Big Bucks for our EPG membership. You need to join us on the next EPG Cruise. Susan is planning it today.

[wilmawatts]

Your analysis is second to none. It gives me a 'table' of ideas to pick from. Many look interesting but of the sweet 16 and small cap ideas i might find 5 or 6 I really like and load up and watch closely.

Buffett and Munger were both concentrated investors, their winners made up for the occasional dog that gets into the portfolio. Your membership fees are much too low in my opinion, but hey I am not complaiing.

And exposure to firms and management and strategy is really worth the time and money, to say nothing of the dynamic excel spreadsheets where i can drop in my 'price deck' assumptions and the sheet automatically kicks out a fair value.

Folks who are complaining don't know what they are talking about. That said I have lost and made a lot with EPG ideas, the losers i did not sell soon enough because I was using a $70 oil price deck when oil went to $35, but hey that was my call at the time and many others got the price deck wrong also. Long term my portfolio of energy and other name has returned 16% year after year over more than a decade