IEA says demand will increase to 98.0 MMBbls per day

[dan_s]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global demand for refined products will rise to 98.0 million barrels per day in 2017. That is an increase of 1.4 MMBbls per day over 2016. Go to my April 6th podcast (slide 7) to see demand by quarter for 2013 - 2016. You can view the podcast from the EPG Home Page.

By Quarter:
Q1 = 97.0 < A decline of approximately 0.9 from Q4 2016. Demand always declines from Q4 to Q1.
Q2 = 97.5
Q3 = 98.6
Q4 = 98.9

The U.S. Department of Energy ("EIA") is now forecasting that 2017 demand will increase to 98.5 million barrels per day. Keep in mind that not all hydrocarbon based liquid fuels and feed stock are refined from crude oil. Volumes above include refined products made from biofuels and NGLs.

Also, "Summer Blends" of gasoline in the United States require more crude oil. "Winter Blends" of gasoline can contain more NGLs.

During April the refiners finish up their annual maintenance and gear up production of summer blends of gasoline. Q2 is the biggest increase in crude oil demand by the refiners in the U.S. IEA now forecasts that demand for crude oil will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day from Q1 to Q2. This is one of the big reasons we should soon see a steady decline in U.S. crude oil inventories.

Looks like Q4 2018 will be the first time that global demand exceeds 100,000,000 barrels per day. WOW!