Crude oil has created a series of lower highs and lower lows since its peak in 2008. Since the lows of 14-months ago, crude has created a series of higher lows and is potentially now creating a bullish ascending triangle pattern. Two-thirds of the time, this pattern leads to an upside breakout.
Read: https://www.investing.com/analysis/if-t ... -200181988
As I have been telling you for several weeks in my podcasts: If WTI closes over $55/bbl it is VERY BULLISH
Crude Oil Prices - April 10
Crude Oil Prices - April 10
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Crude Oil Prices - April 10
RBC Capital now forecasts WTI moving over $60/bbl in second half of this year. Watch the video at the link below.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/how-soar ... -says.html
OPEC's decision to extend their production cuts another six months should come in May. If they do, I think WTI will move quickly to $60/bbl.
Supply/demand for crude oil move very bullish in Q2. Refiners draws from crude oil inventory will increase week after week. Go to my April 6th podcast and look at slide 5. You will see that refiner "Crude Oil Inputs" have already increased by more than 700,000 bbls per day in the last six weeks.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/07/how-soar ... -says.html
OPEC's decision to extend their production cuts another six months should come in May. If they do, I think WTI will move quickly to $60/bbl.
Supply/demand for crude oil move very bullish in Q2. Refiners draws from crude oil inventory will increase week after week. Go to my April 6th podcast and look at slide 5. You will see that refiner "Crude Oil Inputs" have already increased by more than 700,000 bbls per day in the last six weeks.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Crude Oil Prices - April 10
Crude Oil/Macro by John White at Roth Capital:
As widely reported, the U.S. conducted missile strikes on Syria on 4/6/2017 which reminded market participants the risk of physical production outage is virtually always present in the Middle East. This is not the case with Syria as the country’s production contributes only about 30,000 b/d and the country is a net importer, as per the EIA. We are by no means geopolitical analysts but at the least we will likely see relations between the Russia-Iran side and the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iraq alliance worsen, at least, in our view, in the short term.
Nigeria’s output of crude oil and condensate averaged 1.676 million b/d in March, down by more than 200,000 b/d compared to the February average production of 1.9 million b/d, Platts reported on 4/4/2017, citing Nigeria’s petroleum ministry. The Nigerian ministry has not provided an explanation for this sharp drop in output, but sources close to the matter have told Platts that the main reason for the decline was planned turnaround maintenance and upgrades to the FPSO at Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS-NC) Bonga deep water field whose output is somewhere between 150,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d. Last month, Shell Nigeria said that the turnaround maintenance at the Bonga field began on March 4, and the plan was to successfully conclude the activities and resume production in April.
Since the end of last year, Nigerian production has been gradually recovering as militant attacks have subsided, to the point that voices have been raised that the country may have to join OPEC’s output cuts, from which it is currently exempt due to said militant violence, in case it manages to almost fully restore its production. Still, one of Nigeria’s main export grades, Forcados, averaging around 250,000 b/d of output, is still under force majeure. Nigerian officials told Platts early last month that Forcados is expected to come online again sometime in 2Q 2017.
Iran will be decreasing oil exports to 2.4 million b/d in the current year, according to a recent report by the Azeri news agency Trend, and further reported by Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com, on 4/5/2017. For March 2017 Iran’s exports touched 3.05 million b/d. The new goal will bring those heights to just below pre-sanctions levels. A portion of Iran’s export growth over the past few months came not from production growth, but from the sale of oil and gas stored in floating tankers. On 4/2/2017 the Oil Ministry announced that all stored oil had been sold.
The report cited new data from OPEC which suggests that Iran has been slow to make promised cuts in production. Iran’s production was 3.8 million b/d. The last time Iran produced this much oil was in October of 2008. However, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced that Iran would cap production at 3.8 million b/d in the second half of 2017, as long as the OPEC production deal held together.
As widely reported, the U.S. conducted missile strikes on Syria on 4/6/2017 which reminded market participants the risk of physical production outage is virtually always present in the Middle East. This is not the case with Syria as the country’s production contributes only about 30,000 b/d and the country is a net importer, as per the EIA. We are by no means geopolitical analysts but at the least we will likely see relations between the Russia-Iran side and the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iraq alliance worsen, at least, in our view, in the short term.
Nigeria’s output of crude oil and condensate averaged 1.676 million b/d in March, down by more than 200,000 b/d compared to the February average production of 1.9 million b/d, Platts reported on 4/4/2017, citing Nigeria’s petroleum ministry. The Nigerian ministry has not provided an explanation for this sharp drop in output, but sources close to the matter have told Platts that the main reason for the decline was planned turnaround maintenance and upgrades to the FPSO at Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS-NC) Bonga deep water field whose output is somewhere between 150,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d. Last month, Shell Nigeria said that the turnaround maintenance at the Bonga field began on March 4, and the plan was to successfully conclude the activities and resume production in April.
Since the end of last year, Nigerian production has been gradually recovering as militant attacks have subsided, to the point that voices have been raised that the country may have to join OPEC’s output cuts, from which it is currently exempt due to said militant violence, in case it manages to almost fully restore its production. Still, one of Nigeria’s main export grades, Forcados, averaging around 250,000 b/d of output, is still under force majeure. Nigerian officials told Platts early last month that Forcados is expected to come online again sometime in 2Q 2017.
Iran will be decreasing oil exports to 2.4 million b/d in the current year, according to a recent report by the Azeri news agency Trend, and further reported by Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com, on 4/5/2017. For March 2017 Iran’s exports touched 3.05 million b/d. The new goal will bring those heights to just below pre-sanctions levels. A portion of Iran’s export growth over the past few months came not from production growth, but from the sale of oil and gas stored in floating tankers. On 4/2/2017 the Oil Ministry announced that all stored oil had been sold.
The report cited new data from OPEC which suggests that Iran has been slow to make promised cuts in production. Iran’s production was 3.8 million b/d. The last time Iran produced this much oil was in October of 2008. However, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh announced that Iran would cap production at 3.8 million b/d in the second half of 2017, as long as the OPEC production deal held together.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group