The highest monthly production the U.S. ever achieved was 10,044 MBOPD, in November 1970. Production in March 2017, the most recent month the EIA has data for, was 9,098 MBOPD.
The weekly numbers put out by EIA are SWAGs based on formulas. Actual U.S. production comes from state reports. There is a 60 day lag.
U.S. shale producers seem perfectly comfortable with oil at or around $50/bbl., and many producers are planning significant growth in the next year. This growth will propel the U.S. beyond its previous records in 2018, according to the EIA. The agency predicts production will average 10.01 MMBOPD next year, meaning that individual months are highly likely to exceed the 1970 record. Overall, oil production is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2017 and 7.2% in 2018. Current activity has led the EIA to increase its projected production forecast by 0.3% and 0.4% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
The news for natural gas production is not as encouraging, however. The EIA revised its 2017 and 2018 production estimates down by about 1% each this month. Current predictions put 2017 and 2018 production at 73.3 Bcf/d and 76.6 Bcf/d, respectively. This means production will grow by about 1.4% in 2017 and 4.5% in 2018.
Demand for U.S. natural gas is expected to grow by 2.5 Bcf per day in 2017 and by 3.5 Bcf per day in 2018. LNG exports are the primary force for rising demand, but industrial demand and demand for power generation also goes up each year. Exports to Mexico are now 4.0 Bcf per day, expected to rise to over 7.5 Bcf per day by 2020.
U.S. Oil Production
U.S. Oil Production
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group