Articles like this kill me

[dan_s]

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/07/ ... ed-to.aspx

The basic premise of the article above is that the price of oil is down today because EIA reported a week-to-week increase in U.S. production of 88,000 barrels per day for the week ending June 30. Forget for a moment that the weekly EIA estimate of U.S. production is nothing more than a wild ass guess, the author failed to look at the previous week. EIA reported that U.S. oil production declined by 100,000 barrels per day during the week ending June 23.

I have been tracking U.S. oil production closely since July, 2016. The growth rate has slowed to a crawl.
See for yourself here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=W

Here is what happened last week: Tropical storm Cindy caused over 50 Gulf of Mexico production platforms to be shut-in for several days the week ending June 23. The increase during the week ending June 30 was just the rebound of that GOM production coming back on-line. Since the week ending May 26, 2017, U.S. oil production is actually DOWN 4,000 barrels per day. To confirm this, go to the link above. EIA reported it, so it must be right.

Frac sand demand is tied to the active rig count. Today, Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. active rig count went up 12 to 952. As I told you in the Hi-Crush profile we sent out recently, if the rig count stays over 900 it is going to create a big increase in frac sand demand. Frac sand demand is on-track to be much higher than it was in 2014 because upstream companies are using almost 3X the amount of sand to complete horizontal wells today.

[setliff]

i've seen that story on cnbc and seeking alpha------really sad so many are so uninformed!

[dan_s]

Take a hard look at my forecast model for Hi-Crush, which is actually more conservative than the current First Call estimates. HCLP is a Screaming Buy under $10 because they are going to report a big increase in revenues quarter after quarter unless there is a significant decline in the active rig count.

In my podcast, I will point out that U.S. oil production declined in June.

[mkarpoff]

You always talk about Hi-Crush. As I do not want another mlp in my portfolio, I would really appreciate your evaluating slca as an alternate.

[dan_s]

Remember, there is only one of me. HCLP is a pure play on frac sand for the oil & gas business. SLCA sells all kinds of sand and I have no idea how to evaluate those markets. I do know that SLCA is a first class outfit. The Big Four frac sand companies are HCLP, EMES, FMSA and SLCA.

Here is what you can do yourself. Download my recently updated forecast model for HCLP and compare it to SLCA's last income statement, which you can find in their last 10Q or on their website under the Investor tab.

Go to Yahoo Finance and bring un SLCA. Then click on Analysts. It will show you expected Revenue and EPG growth ahead. I'm sure my forecast would be very close to the average for the 17 analysts that follow the company.