Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

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dan_s
Posts: 37340
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

Post by dan_s »

Production for Q2 was 619 Boepd above my forecast. My EPS forecast was $0.44 and my Cash Flow From Operations forecast was $96.7 million. - Dan

HOUSTON, Aug. 08, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. (CRZO) today announced the Company’s financial results for the second quarter of 2017 and provided an operational update, which includes the following highlights:

Crude oil production of 33,629 Bbls/d, 40% above the second quarter of 2016

Total production of 51,019 Boe/d, 23% above the second quarter of 2016

Net income of $56.3 million, or $0.85 per diluted share, and Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities of $102.7 million

Adjusted Net Income of $20.0 million, or $0.30 per diluted share, and Adjusted EBITDA of $111.9 million

Previously-announced acquisition of Delaware Basin properties remains on track to close by mid-August
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37340
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

Post by dan_s »

Here's why the stock may be down this morning. IMO this is just a timing difference and no big deal. Adjusted production forecast is very close to my forecast. - Dan

The Company's planned acquisition of Delaware Basin properties from ExL Petroleum Management, LLC (“ExL”) remains on track to close by mid-August. While Carrizo continues to be pleased with the performance of the wells on the properties, ExL has encountered some operational delays, and Carrizo now expects fewer wells to be online at closing as compared to its previous guidance. Additionally, as the Company has continued to conduct its due diligence on the land and associated drilling requirements, it has confirmed that the leasehold obligations post closing are not burdensome. As a result, Carrizo has elected to adjust its near-term development plan on the acreage. The Company now plans to release and replace the existing rigs on the acreage earlier than previously planned. While Carrizo believes this will reduce costs and enhance the returns of its development program on the acreage, the adjusted timing is also expected to result in fewer wells being drilled and completed between closing and year-end. As a result of the updated development plan, Carrizo now expects six fewer gross operated wells on these assets to be on production by year-end 2017 relative to its previous guidance.

Primarily as a result of the updated drilling and completion plan on the ExL properties, the Company is reducing its 2017 drilling and completion capital expenditure guidance to $590-$610 million from $620-$640 million previously. The Company is no longer providing guidance for land and seismic capital expenditures given the limited visibility and highly discretionary nature of this spending.

Based on the changes to the planned drilling and completion schedule, Carrizo is decreasing its 2017 oil production guidance to 34,600-34,800 Bbls/d from 35,700-36,000 Bbls/d previously. Using the midpoint of this range, the Company’s 2017 oil production growth guidance equates to 35%. For natural gas and NGLs, Carrizo is adjusting its 2017 guidance to 81-83 MMcf/d and 5,900-6,000 Bbls/d, respectively, from 80-84 MMcf/d and 5,900-6,100 Bbls/d, respectively. For the third quarter of 2017, Carrizo expects oil production to be 35,400-35,800 Bbls/d, and natural gas and NGL production to be 73-77 MMcf/d and 5,900-6,100 Bbls/d, respectively.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37340
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

Post by dan_s »

I have updated my forecast model for Carrizo and it will be posted to the EPG website later today.

My valuation is adjusted to $46.00/share, which compares to First Call's price target of $31.07.

Carrizo is a company in transition. They are closing the largest acquisition in the company's history by the end of August. They are selling their stakes in the Utica and DJ Basin. I am assuming that the sales close by year-end. If so, Carrizo's balance sheet should be in good shape and they should be positioned for ~35% YOY production growth in 2018.

FWIW: This company used to have very confusing financial reports and crappy guidance. There has been a significant improvement on both.

Carrizo should generate approximately $5.00 of cash flow from operations in 2017. On the forecast model you will find a RED BOX that shows First Call's estimated cash flow per share through 2020.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
bobs
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Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:32 pm

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

Post by bobs »

any cc impressions re the new acquisition that seem troubling?
dan_s
Posts: 37340
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Carrizo Oil & Gas - Q2 Results

Post by dan_s »

No. I think this new fear of the Delaware Basin being too gassy is a bit overblown. It is still too early to make that determination IMO.

Carrizo is not pleased with the current rigs and/or crews working them, so they are replacing the rigs. This will push some well completions out a few months.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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