Iran

[dan_s]

From an article written by Alan Dershowitz Monday, 09 Oct 2017 08:23 AM

President Trump faces an Oct. 15 deadline to decide whether to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement, which is designed to keep it from developing nuclear weapons for the next few years. News reports say he is expected to refuse to make that certification.

U.S. policy toward both Iran and North Korea is closely related, because we must prevent Iran from joining the nuclear club and becoming another, even more dangerous version of North Korea.

The sad reality is that even if Iran were to comply with the letter of the nuclear agreement, it will still be able to develop the capability to build up a vast nuclear arsenal within a relatively short time. This is the fundamental flaw of the agreement.

And Iran claims that the nuclear deal permits it to refuse to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect military facilities. This has led the IAEA to conclude that it cannot assure the world that Iran is not even now designing and developing a nuclear arsenal with missiles capable of delivering them to American allies in the Mideast and Europe — and soon the U.S. itself.

All the Iranians need to do to become a nuclear power is to start spinning centrifuges. The nuclear agreement, which was reached with the Obama administration in 2015, will allow them to do that in a few years.

So whether we like it or not, a storm is coming. Whether that storm will be diplomatic, economic, or military depends on the leaders of North Korea and Iran. If they choose to negotiate constraints on their increasingly dangerous activities, they can avoid the other more painful options.
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If the U.S. slaps new sanctions on Iran you can expect it to have an impact on the global oil market. Going back to the pre-deal sanctions will take 2 million barrels per day of oil off the market. Europe will be pissed, but so what.

[dan_s]

Bloomberg: Iran is targeting 4.5 million b/d of oil output by 2021, National Iranian Oil Co. Managing Director Ali Kardor said at a conference in Tehran. The plan will require $134 billion of upstream investment and $67 billion for downstream, he said

I post this to show you how big of deal it will be if the U.S. puts new sanctions on Iran.

If you think North Korea with nukes is frightening, wait until Iran has them.

[dan_s]

Bloomberg: Iran is targeting 4.5 million b/d of oil output by 2021, National Iranian Oil Co. Managing Director Ali Kardor said at a conference in Tehran. The plan will require $134 billion of upstream investment and $67 billion for downstream, he said

I post this to show you how big of deal it will be if the U.S. puts new sanctions on Iran.

If you think North Korea with nukes is frightening, wait until Iran has them.