I told you so ...
Working gas in storage was 3,772 Bcf as of Friday, November 10, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 18 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 271 Bcf less than last year at this time and 101 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,873 Bcf. At 3,772 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 16
Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 16
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 16
Today's weather update is also bullish for natural gas: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 16
During the 35 weeks of the refill season that ended November 10, the delta to the 5-year average was a negative 507 BCF. Over 14 BCF per week.
In the last 8 weeks, the delta to the 5-year average has been 158 BCF. 19.75 BCF per week.
The U.S. natural gas market is 2 BCF per day under-supplied. I cannot believe this fact is not driving up the natural gas price; especially as we head into the winter heating season.
We produce more gas today than we did five years ago, but demand is more than 10 BCF per day higher when you include exports.
In the last 8 weeks, the delta to the 5-year average has been 158 BCF. 19.75 BCF per week.
The U.S. natural gas market is 2 BCF per day under-supplied. I cannot believe this fact is not driving up the natural gas price; especially as we head into the winter heating season.
We produce more gas today than we did five years ago, but demand is more than 10 BCF per day higher when you include exports.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 16
The comments below are from Tudor Pickering Holt:
Gas storage recap…back to 3bcfd undersupplied ($3.05/mcf) – bullish 18bcf draw vs. normal 13bcf injections on ~normal temps. This suggests the market is 3bcfd undersupplied (as was most of the shoulder period) and much better than last week’s slight oversupply (15bcf injection on similar temps). We like winter gas with bullish storage levels (current storage of 3,772bcf over 100bcf below normal and 227bcf below year-ago) and the market meaningfully undersupplied. A touch of colder than normal temps in Dec should move gas price higher. Weekly storage remains important to calibrate the market. Next release Wednesday noon EST. TPH Research – Natural Gas Weekly 11.16.17
Global gas weekly: bullish projections for Chinese gas demand – In the first 10 months of 2017, delivered LNG volumes are +10% y/y with China leading the way with imports +45% y/y. China Gas Holdings, one of China’s largest domestic natural gas distributors said the company plans to lay 20,000 to 30,000 km of pipeline every year over the next three to five years and may build its own LNG import terminal. The IEA is forecasting ~160% growth in LNG demand by 2040 with natural gas growing to 25% of total global energy demand. Chinese and Indian gas demand is expected to triple by 2040 to ~75Bcf/d in aggregate. Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula is considering importing US LNG by utilising an FSRU to meet 300mmcf/d of demand. The Dutch Government has been given a year to justify the 2.1Bcf/d cap on production at Groningen for the next 5 years, with residents arguing it should be much lower – there is a risk that field (Shell 30%; XOM 30%) will have to sharply curtail production in a year given the earthquake risk. Our Groningen Field Production Cap Analysis from April available from your TPH representative.
Gas storage recap…back to 3bcfd undersupplied ($3.05/mcf) – bullish 18bcf draw vs. normal 13bcf injections on ~normal temps. This suggests the market is 3bcfd undersupplied (as was most of the shoulder period) and much better than last week’s slight oversupply (15bcf injection on similar temps). We like winter gas with bullish storage levels (current storage of 3,772bcf over 100bcf below normal and 227bcf below year-ago) and the market meaningfully undersupplied. A touch of colder than normal temps in Dec should move gas price higher. Weekly storage remains important to calibrate the market. Next release Wednesday noon EST. TPH Research – Natural Gas Weekly 11.16.17
Global gas weekly: bullish projections for Chinese gas demand – In the first 10 months of 2017, delivered LNG volumes are +10% y/y with China leading the way with imports +45% y/y. China Gas Holdings, one of China’s largest domestic natural gas distributors said the company plans to lay 20,000 to 30,000 km of pipeline every year over the next three to five years and may build its own LNG import terminal. The IEA is forecasting ~160% growth in LNG demand by 2040 with natural gas growing to 25% of total global energy demand. Chinese and Indian gas demand is expected to triple by 2040 to ~75Bcf/d in aggregate. Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula is considering importing US LNG by utilising an FSRU to meet 300mmcf/d of demand. The Dutch Government has been given a year to justify the 2.1Bcf/d cap on production at Groningen for the next 5 years, with residents arguing it should be much lower – there is a risk that field (Shell 30%; XOM 30%) will have to sharply curtail production in a year given the earthquake risk. Our Groningen Field Production Cap Analysis from April available from your TPH representative.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group