prices
prices
In your latest View you make a point that you have many times before, and which, confounds me. This time, you said that congress wants to keep oil prices down. Other times you have said the IEA over-reports production and/or under-reports demand. These miscellaneous acts negatively affect the price of oil and oil stocks. So my question: If all these energy traders are as expert as you (perhaps I am giving them too much credit), why don't they see what you see, and help drive these shares closer to the value you give them?
Re: prices
Most of the Wall Street Gang doesn't know as much as I do about the oil and gas industry and they don't know 1% of what Mark Papa knows about this industry. I am not saying this to brag.
I have worked in the upstream oil & gas industry for almost 40 years. Mark Papa was CEO and Chairman for EOG Resources, one of the most successful upstream companies EVER.
Washington wants to keep fuel prices down because very few things piss off the voters more than high gasoline prices and high utility prices. People working for the government put keeping their jobs ahead of all else.
IEA is the best source that we have for what is going on in the global oil market, but they have a long history of under-estimating demand.
EIA (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) does the best job they can, but their weekly numbers are ESTIMATES based on flawed formulas. This has been pointed out to them many times. The "flaw" is that they put too much weight on the trend. So, when the trend changes (i.e. goes from growth to decline) they miss it. In the newsletter (bottom of page 4) there is a chart that shows ACTUAL U.S. oil production by month. It only goes through August because that is the most recent month that ANYONE has actual data for.
Upstream companies are required by law to file production reports with the state agencies (who pass them on to the Feds) within 60 days after the end of each month.
I worked at Hess Corp. for 18 years and most of that time I was responsible for filing these state reports. It is very difficult to get accurate data from the field (we had over 18,000 producing wells) and for most months we ended up filing amended reports with the states.
Go here to see actual U.S. oil production by month since 1920 - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS1&f=M
I have worked in the upstream oil & gas industry for almost 40 years. Mark Papa was CEO and Chairman for EOG Resources, one of the most successful upstream companies EVER.
Washington wants to keep fuel prices down because very few things piss off the voters more than high gasoline prices and high utility prices. People working for the government put keeping their jobs ahead of all else.
IEA is the best source that we have for what is going on in the global oil market, but they have a long history of under-estimating demand.
EIA (part of the U.S. Department of Energy) does the best job they can, but their weekly numbers are ESTIMATES based on flawed formulas. This has been pointed out to them many times. The "flaw" is that they put too much weight on the trend. So, when the trend changes (i.e. goes from growth to decline) they miss it. In the newsletter (bottom of page 4) there is a chart that shows ACTUAL U.S. oil production by month. It only goes through August because that is the most recent month that ANYONE has actual data for.
Upstream companies are required by law to file production reports with the state agencies (who pass them on to the Feds) within 60 days after the end of each month.
I worked at Hess Corp. for 18 years and most of that time I was responsible for filing these state reports. It is very difficult to get accurate data from the field (we had over 18,000 producing wells) and for most months we ended up filing amended reports with the states.
Go here to see actual U.S. oil production by month since 1920 - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS1&f=M
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: prices
Go here and read the slides carefully: http://www.cdevinc.com/wp-content/uploa ... Final_.pdf
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: prices
mkarpoff: Please read the article at the link below. It will help you understand my point the IEA has been under-stating demand for year.
http://www.petroleum-economist.com/arti ... -not-right
http://www.petroleum-economist.com/arti ... -not-right
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group