Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 22

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,726 Bcf as of Friday, November 17, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 46 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 319 Bcf less than last year at this time and 121 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,847 Bcf. At 3,726 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

There are six weeks remaining in 2017.
5-year average draws over last six weeks of the year = 541 BCF
Draws from storage over the last six weeks of 2016 = 734 BCF < Makes sense because the U.S. gas market (including exports) is more than 10 BCF per day larger than it was 5 years ago.

The draw for the week ending November 24th s/b 80-100 BCF because of the cold week around the Great Lakes area.

So, it looks like there is a GOOD CHANCE that gas in storage will be near 3,000 BCF by year-end. < The 5-year average is 3,307 BCF at year-end.

There is a "disconnect" between the tightness of the U.S. gas market and the price right now, but that can change quickly. Old Man Winter is now in charge. Last year we had two very cold weeks in December and natural gas spiked to $3.71.