Global Oil Market - Dec 29

[dan_s]

Will we begin the New Year with WTI selling for over $60/Bbl?

Reuters comments from the Asian market at 7AM ET on December 29th:
U.S. oil prices hit their highest since mid-2015 on the final trading day of the year as an unexpected fall in American output and a fall in commercial crude inventories stoked buying.

In international markets, Brent crude oil futures also rose, supported by ongoing supply cuts by top producers OPEC and Russia as well as strong demand from China.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $60.21 a barrel at 0806 GMT, up 37 cents or 0.6 percent from their last close, after hitting a June 2015 high of $60.32 earlier in the day.
Brent crude futures - the international benchmark - were also up, rising 45 cents or 0.7 percent to $66.61 a barrel. Brent broke through $67 earlier this week for the first time since May 2015.

Since the start of the year, Brent and WTI have risen by 17 and 12 percent, respectively, although the price rises from mid-2017 are much stronger, at nearly 50 percent.

Friday's WTI price rises were driven by a surprise drop in U.S. oil production, which last week dipped to 9.754 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 9.789 million bpd the previous week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released late on Thursday. U.S. output is still up by almost 16 percent since mid-2016, but most analysts had expected production to break through 10 million bpd by the end of this year - a level only surpassed by top exporter Saudi Arabia and top producer Russia.

WTI prices were further boosted by a fall in U.S. commercial crude storage levels, which dropped by 4.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 22 to 431.9 million barrels, according to the EIA.

Inventories are now down by almost 20 percent from their historic highs last March, and well below this time last year or in 2015.

A YEAR OF CUTS

In international markets, China has issued crude oil import quotas totaling 121.32 million tonnes for 44 companies in its first batch of allowances for 2018.

Based on total expected quotas, China's imports - which at around 8.5 million bpd are already the world's biggest - are expected to hit another record in 2018 as new refining capacity is brought online and Beijing allows more independent refiners to import crude.

On the supply side, Brent prices have been supported by a year of production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia. The cuts started last January and are scheduled to cover all of 2018.

Pipeline outages in Libya and the North Sea have also been supporting oil prices, although both these disruptions are expected to be resolved by early January. Consultancy JBC Energy said the Libyan pipeline outages had "no major impact on exports".
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MY TAKE:
> U.S. oil production will be flat to down for at least the next few weeks as the MAJOR WINTER STORM is going to cause production problems.
> U.S. oil production will eventually top 10 million barrels per day, but will have difficulty going much higher, unless the active rig count goes a lot higher
> "Unplanned Supply Outages" (like the pipeline problems above) will get a lot more attention in 2018 because demand exceeds supply today and demand will exceed supply by a lot in Q2.
> Demand Growth will be the variable that gets a lot of attention in just a few months.
> Each year the fear of softening demand from China is overblown. China + India demand will be going up a million barrels per day in 2018 is my SWAG.

[dan_s]

HOUSTON, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices will need to rise further for energy companies to significantly expand drilling activities, according to a survey released on Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. U.S. energy companies have added rigs and boosted production to near record levels, as oil prices have more than doubled from a low of about $26 per barrel touched in early 2016. But prices above $60 a barrel are needed to see a significant uptick in activity, according to the survey, which questioned 134 firms headquartered in Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana.

Survey Details: https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL1N1OS0ZI

[dan_s]

Read this: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/S ... blems.html

The article at the link above does a good job of explaining why U.S. oil production will peak soon and have difficulty staying over 10 million barrels per day. Except for the Permian Basin and SCOOP/STACK most of the Tier One leasehold in the other shale plays has been drilled out. Increased well density (tighter spacing between the horizontal wells) will increase the decline rates of the overall field. It will become harder and harder to maintain peak production.