gpor
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John.A.Hunt
- Posts: 52
- Joined: Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:42 pm
Re: gpor
Looking at the 11/25 EPG overview of GPOR, I see that about 83% of its production is from Eastern Ohio. Is GPOR having wellhead/flowline freeze due to the low temps hampering their OH production? Is that affecting share price?
Re: gpor
All three of our gassers (AR, RRC and GPOR) may report some temporary production issues because of the weather. They all have lots of production in Ohio and PA.
What is hurting them the most is the overall negativity about gas prices. There is the belief on Wall Street that there will be so much associated gas produced from the oil shale plays, primarily the Permian Basin, that it will create over-supply in the U.S. market for many years. There is some merit to this belief, but I see a big increase in demand coming just ahead. The U.S. is the largest and the most important natural gas and NGL market in the world. IMO a "fair price" for gas is necessary to keep supply growth on track.
1. The weekly storage reports do not support this believe that the U.S. market has ample supply. Since March, 2017 (42 weeks) the delta to the 5-year amount of gas in storage has been a -573 BCF. That tells me that the U.S. market is close to 2.0 Bcf per day under-supplied.
2. The "Always Blame it on Global Warming" gang has a strong hold on Wall Street. Winter will move back to normal temps over the next week, but winter isn't over by a long shot and I think we end the heating season with much less gas in storage than we had a year ago. My SWAG is that storage ends March 250 to 300 Bcf below the 5-year average.
Regardless, it will be difficult for natural gas to reach and maintain $3.00 until their is a "Paradigm Shift" among the traders that set the NYMEX prices. < This is why the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 remain heavily weighted to oil.
Gulfport has been and will continue to be one of the most profitable companies in the Sweet 16. EPS should be just under $2.00 for 2017 and my initial EPS estimate for 2018 is $1.58. Go to the forecast/valuation model for GPOR and find the RED BOX. It shows what Wall Street analysts are estimating for operating cash flow per share thru 2020.
PS: I have probably under-estimated where NGL prices are heading in all of the forecast models and GPOR sells a lot of NGLs. You can find their production mix and hedges at the bottom of the forecast model.
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Each of you are 100% responsible for what you BUY, SELL and HOLD. I NEVER tell you what to invest in because I have no idea what your individual situation and risk tolerance is. All I do is try to provide accurate forecast models and my take on the industry.
What is hurting them the most is the overall negativity about gas prices. There is the belief on Wall Street that there will be so much associated gas produced from the oil shale plays, primarily the Permian Basin, that it will create over-supply in the U.S. market for many years. There is some merit to this belief, but I see a big increase in demand coming just ahead. The U.S. is the largest and the most important natural gas and NGL market in the world. IMO a "fair price" for gas is necessary to keep supply growth on track.
1. The weekly storage reports do not support this believe that the U.S. market has ample supply. Since March, 2017 (42 weeks) the delta to the 5-year amount of gas in storage has been a -573 BCF. That tells me that the U.S. market is close to 2.0 Bcf per day under-supplied.
2. The "Always Blame it on Global Warming" gang has a strong hold on Wall Street. Winter will move back to normal temps over the next week, but winter isn't over by a long shot and I think we end the heating season with much less gas in storage than we had a year ago. My SWAG is that storage ends March 250 to 300 Bcf below the 5-year average.
Regardless, it will be difficult for natural gas to reach and maintain $3.00 until their is a "Paradigm Shift" among the traders that set the NYMEX prices. < This is why the Elite Eight and Sweet 16 remain heavily weighted to oil.
Gulfport has been and will continue to be one of the most profitable companies in the Sweet 16. EPS should be just under $2.00 for 2017 and my initial EPS estimate for 2018 is $1.58. Go to the forecast/valuation model for GPOR and find the RED BOX. It shows what Wall Street analysts are estimating for operating cash flow per share thru 2020.
PS: I have probably under-estimated where NGL prices are heading in all of the forecast models and GPOR sells a lot of NGLs. You can find their production mix and hedges at the bottom of the forecast model.
------------------------------
Each of you are 100% responsible for what you BUY, SELL and HOLD. I NEVER tell you what to invest in because I have no idea what your individual situation and risk tolerance is. All I do is try to provide accurate forecast models and my take on the industry.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group