U.S. Natural Gas Market - Jan 22 Update

[dan_s]

On Thursday, EIA will report another VERY BIG draw from U.S. natural gas storage for the week that ended January 12. It will push storage levels more than 400 Bcf below the 5-year average.

The next two weeks will be warmer than normal in the eastern half of the U.S., but draws from storage s/b at or just slightly below the 5-year average because industrial demand and export demand are higher this year.

It now looks like the weather will turn bullish for natural gas demand during the week of February 5th and remain cold in the eastern U.S. through mid-March.
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The March NYMEX contract for ngas is sitting below $3.00 today, but if the weather turns cold again in the eastern U.S. it should push over $3.00 quickly when it becomes the front month because the BULLS will take profits on the February contract and roll it into the March and April contracts.

PLEASE DO NOT CONFUSE THESE COMMENTS WITH ME TURNING SUPER BULLISH ON THE GASSERS. All of our portfolios will remain heavily weighted to liquids, but the "gassers" are all trading as if ngas prices are going to average $2.50 in 2018 and 2019.

[dan_s]

On January 25, 2018, the EIA will release its US natural gas inventories report. A Reuters poll estimates that US natural gas inventories could have fallen by 249 Bcf (billion cubic feet) on January 12–19, 2018. Inventories fell by 137 Bcf during the same week a year ago. The five-year average natural gas withdrawal for this period of the year was at 164 Bcf.