Shale oil growth is a "MYTH"

[dan_s]

There is a myth going around that U.S. shale oil is now the "Swing Producer" and we can ramp up production to meet global demand on short notice.

Here are some facts from EIA:
> The Eagle Ford Shale play is expected to recover to 1.3 mmb/d by 2022 & then decline to 1.2 mmb/d by 2050.
> The Permian basin plays are anticipated to grow from 2.2 mmb/d in 2018 to more than 3.5 mmb/d by 2044 & then decline to 3.4 mmb/d by 2050.

Compare those numbers to forecasts of increasing global demand for oil of 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels of oil per day year after year. This world will be consuming over 100 mmb/d in Q3 2018 and demand is estimated to be over 120,000,000 barrels per day in 2030. U.S. tight oil production will never exceed much more than 5% of global oil supply.

WHY????????????????????

Because horizontal wells in shale and other tight formations come on strong, but they have hyperbolic decline curves. In a few short years the math will not work. We will soon have hundreds of thousands of horizontal wells on steep decline. We will run out of Tier One leasehold and no matter how many new wells we drill, shale oil production will go on decline.

God's Gift to America is the Utica/Marcellus Shale gas plays. We have more than enough natural gas to supply North America's energy demand, but this will not keep oil prices from going a lot higher. In the 2020's we will need to see a lot more electric cars and trucks that run on CNG or LNG. Thank God that we have the technology to make the switch.

[dan_s]

You should all go to this link: http://www.artberman.com/wp-content/upl ... y-2018.pdf

Go through the slides carefully and let the message sink in.

Shale oil saved us, but the "Shale Miracle" will not last more than five more years.

Public companies with lots of proven oil reserves will become extremely valuable over the next few years. Our "Elite Eight" should be Core Holdings in your portfolio.