Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
for week ending July 6, 2018 | Released: July 12, 2018 at 10:30 a.m.
Summary
Working gas in storage was 2,203 Bcf as of Friday, July 6, 2018, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 51 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 725 Bcf less than last year at this time and 519 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,722 Bcf. At 2,203 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
I will let Dan and others comment on these numbers; but, apparently, recent reports of significantly increased takeaway capacity seem to be weighing on ngas equity prices.
Weekly Nat Gas storage report - July 12
Re: Weekly Nat Gas storage report - July 12
Stocks were 725 Bcf less than last year at this time and 519 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,722 Bcf.
So... in the last ten weeks the delta to the 5-year average has increased by 3 Bcf. < Gotten wider when it need to be getting smaller.
There are now 18 weeks remaining before the next winter heating season begins. So... weekly increases to storage must average 28.8 Bcf higher than the 5-year average through mid-November. I would be stunned it that happened.
I do expect the next three weeks' builds to be higher than the 5 year averages (54, 42 and 38 Bcf) just because the weather has turned a bit milder than normal. However, it now looks like we will reach the end of August with ~400 Bcf less gas in storage than the 5-year average.
We have a lot more gas supply than we did five years ago, but we have even more demand. In the last 52 weeks, the delta to the 5-year average gas in storage is a -732 Bcf.
So... in the last ten weeks the delta to the 5-year average has increased by 3 Bcf. < Gotten wider when it need to be getting smaller.
There are now 18 weeks remaining before the next winter heating season begins. So... weekly increases to storage must average 28.8 Bcf higher than the 5-year average through mid-November. I would be stunned it that happened.
I do expect the next three weeks' builds to be higher than the 5 year averages (54, 42 and 38 Bcf) just because the weather has turned a bit milder than normal. However, it now looks like we will reach the end of August with ~400 Bcf less gas in storage than the 5-year average.
We have a lot more gas supply than we did five years ago, but we have even more demand. In the last 52 weeks, the delta to the 5-year average gas in storage is a -732 Bcf.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weekly Nat Gas storage report - July 12
Gas demand for power generation:
Between 2018 and 2020, natural gas is expected to continue to eat away steadily at coal's share of the US energy mix, barring any regulatory intervention from the federal government. The competition between natural gas and coal is especially fierce this summer: the former could set a record in terms of its contribution to overall US energy generation. These market estimates come from the US federal government's energy statistics office, the Energy Information Agency (EIA), which releases a monthly report called the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA reports that, this summer, natural gas will constitute 37 percent of US electricity generation. Coal, which has declined significantly from the market-dominant position it once had, will make up 30 percent of electricity generation this summer.
Their are also big increases in demand from industry (feedstock and for power) and rising exports (LNG and via pipeline).
Between 2018 and 2020, natural gas is expected to continue to eat away steadily at coal's share of the US energy mix, barring any regulatory intervention from the federal government. The competition between natural gas and coal is especially fierce this summer: the former could set a record in terms of its contribution to overall US energy generation. These market estimates come from the US federal government's energy statistics office, the Energy Information Agency (EIA), which releases a monthly report called the Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The EIA reports that, this summer, natural gas will constitute 37 percent of US electricity generation. Coal, which has declined significantly from the market-dominant position it once had, will make up 30 percent of electricity generation this summer.
Their are also big increases in demand from industry (feedstock and for power) and rising exports (LNG and via pipeline).
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weekly Nat Gas storage report - July 12
Investors have fled natural gas stocks with the drop in prices. But natural gas demand isn’t going anywhere but up.
Natural gas is entering the next stage of its cycle, and this one has horns. These six companies will soar as the price of natural gas rebounds. < GPOR is on their list of Top Picks.
There’s no time like the present to put on your contrarian hat and load up on shares. You’ll be happy you did in the months and years ahead.
Good investing,
The Oxford Club Research Team
Read: https://energyandresourcesdigest.com/re ... ?src=email
Natural gas is entering the next stage of its cycle, and this one has horns. These six companies will soar as the price of natural gas rebounds. < GPOR is on their list of Top Picks.
There’s no time like the present to put on your contrarian hat and load up on shares. You’ll be happy you did in the months and years ahead.
Good investing,
The Oxford Club Research Team
Read: https://energyandresourcesdigest.com/re ... ?src=email
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weekly Nat Gas storage report - July 12
Comments from TPH on July 13:
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Recap: "Running of the Bulls"
Natural gas inventories built 51bcf, significantly lower than 5-yr norms (79bcf). Inventory deficit to the five year average deepened 28bcfd w/w to 522bcf (~19%). With ~18 weeks of injection before the refill season normally ends, the market would need to be ~4.0bcfd oversupplied to reach normal inventory levels (vs ~2.0bcfd TPHe). However, the 8-14 day weather outlook indicates “normal” temperatures in the Midwest and TRP CN's Leach Xpress pipeline is slated to be back in-service July 15th, indicating that a Northeast production ramp is imminent.
Canadian gas storage: "Christmas in July"
We're fairly certain Bud Lite and mini doughnuts were the most in demand items in Calgary this week but it looks like natural gas was near the top of the list as well. Maybe it's the extra demand from the Stampede beer fridges but intra-Alberta natural gas demand continues to post impressive figures, pushing up to 4.9bcfd this week, despite a 0.2bcfd loss due to the Syncrude outage. To give this some context, this week's demand is up ~0.8bcfd over year ago levels and roughly equal to mid-winter demand two years ago. Yesterday's storage report indicated Western Canadian gas storage built by 8bcf last week, in-line with seasonal norms and storage remains 11% below the 5-year average. We expect a return to below-average builds next week, as we're forecasting a 5bcf build.
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Recap: "Running of the Bulls"
Natural gas inventories built 51bcf, significantly lower than 5-yr norms (79bcf). Inventory deficit to the five year average deepened 28bcfd w/w to 522bcf (~19%). With ~18 weeks of injection before the refill season normally ends, the market would need to be ~4.0bcfd oversupplied to reach normal inventory levels (vs ~2.0bcfd TPHe). However, the 8-14 day weather outlook indicates “normal” temperatures in the Midwest and TRP CN's Leach Xpress pipeline is slated to be back in-service July 15th, indicating that a Northeast production ramp is imminent.
Canadian gas storage: "Christmas in July"
We're fairly certain Bud Lite and mini doughnuts were the most in demand items in Calgary this week but it looks like natural gas was near the top of the list as well. Maybe it's the extra demand from the Stampede beer fridges but intra-Alberta natural gas demand continues to post impressive figures, pushing up to 4.9bcfd this week, despite a 0.2bcfd loss due to the Syncrude outage. To give this some context, this week's demand is up ~0.8bcfd over year ago levels and roughly equal to mid-winter demand two years ago. Yesterday's storage report indicated Western Canadian gas storage built by 8bcf last week, in-line with seasonal norms and storage remains 11% below the 5-year average. We expect a return to below-average builds next week, as we're forecasting a 5bcf build.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group