All eyes will be on the EIA oil storage report later this morning.
Stronger U.S. dollar putting early pressure on crude oil: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/charts
Oil Price - July 18
Oil Price - July 18
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Price - July 18
EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 13, 2018
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending July 13, 2018, which was 413,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 1,635,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 8.5 million barrels per day, 8.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 657,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 140,000 barrels per day. < Weather in the GOM has a lot to do with the big summer swings in imports.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 411.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.
Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels per day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.6 million barrels per day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 5.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.8% compared with the same four-week period last year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending July 13, 2018, which was 413,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.1 million barrels per day last week, up by 1,635,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 8.5 million barrels per day, 8.1% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 657,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 140,000 barrels per day. < Weather in the GOM has a lot to do with the big summer swings in imports.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 411.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year.
Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels per day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.6 million barrels per day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 5.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 0.8% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Price - July 18
Phil Flynn at 9:24 AM ET:
DTN writes that there are media reports of continued protests at Iraq's Zubair oil field and reports Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure on oil loadings at its Zawiya port Monday, following recent attacks and a kidnapping at its Sharara field causing production declines totaling 125,000 barrels per day (bpd). They also say that supplies from Venezuela also are set to decline as much as 700,000 bpd over the next several weeks, according to Reuters, as four crude upgraders go down for scheduled maintenance.
“Iraqi police wielded batons and rubber hoses to disperse about 250 protesters gathered at the main entrance to the Zubair oilfield near Basra on Tuesday, as unrest across southern cities over poor basic services gathered pace”, according to Reuters.
Jerome Powell’s upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy suggests no recession in site, so the prospect for oil demand remains on an upward trajectory. The Oil market is close to being structurally undersupplied and we are going to need more oil from OPEC and the SPR to avoid shortfalls. We’d expect a lot of volatility over the next few weeks, yet we are still on track for a big year end rally. Use the weakness to put on long term bullish strategies. Look to get hedged as we could see supply get squeezed.
DTN writes that there are media reports of continued protests at Iraq's Zubair oil field and reports Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure on oil loadings at its Zawiya port Monday, following recent attacks and a kidnapping at its Sharara field causing production declines totaling 125,000 barrels per day (bpd). They also say that supplies from Venezuela also are set to decline as much as 700,000 bpd over the next several weeks, according to Reuters, as four crude upgraders go down for scheduled maintenance.
“Iraqi police wielded batons and rubber hoses to disperse about 250 protesters gathered at the main entrance to the Zubair oilfield near Basra on Tuesday, as unrest across southern cities over poor basic services gathered pace”, according to Reuters.
Jerome Powell’s upbeat assessment on the U.S. economy suggests no recession in site, so the prospect for oil demand remains on an upward trajectory. The Oil market is close to being structurally undersupplied and we are going to need more oil from OPEC and the SPR to avoid shortfalls. We’d expect a lot of volatility over the next few weeks, yet we are still on track for a big year end rally. Use the weakness to put on long term bullish strategies. Look to get hedged as we could see supply get squeezed.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Price - July 18
Martijn Rats, CFA – Morgan Stanley
July 18, 2018 3:40 AM GMT
Ahead of sanctions on Iran, several other OPEC members have increased exports sharply. The timing mismatch between these effects is pressuring oil prices. Yet, markets are not as well supplied in 2H18 as Brent time spreads suggest. Much depends on Iran but we still see a tight balance to year-end.
Oil prices have come under pressure, down nearly $8/bbl over the last seven days: Several factors have rapidly come into focus. On the demand side, concerns have been growing over global trade, possible yield curve inversion and the roll-over in PMIs. On the supply side, production in Libya has staged a partial comeback, a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has become a growing possibility, and the possibility has emerged that the US government introduces some waivers around the Iranian sanctions.
Several OPEC countries have been increasing exports rapidly: Indeed, ahead of the expected export losses from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have increased exports sharply. According to tanker tracking data from ClipperData, OPEC exports increased 1.8 mb/d from May to June, of which 1.6 mb/d came from these three countries, whilst Iran's export have not declined much yet. As this oil works its way through the system over the next 4-8 weeks, inventory data is likely to remain softer than it would otherwise have been. Still, a large build is improbable - so far we have observed draws: The global oil market has been undersupplied by ~0.2 mb/d so far this year, according to IEA data.
July 18, 2018 3:40 AM GMT
Ahead of sanctions on Iran, several other OPEC members have increased exports sharply. The timing mismatch between these effects is pressuring oil prices. Yet, markets are not as well supplied in 2H18 as Brent time spreads suggest. Much depends on Iran but we still see a tight balance to year-end.
Oil prices have come under pressure, down nearly $8/bbl over the last seven days: Several factors have rapidly come into focus. On the demand side, concerns have been growing over global trade, possible yield curve inversion and the roll-over in PMIs. On the supply side, production in Libya has staged a partial comeback, a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has become a growing possibility, and the possibility has emerged that the US government introduces some waivers around the Iranian sanctions.
Several OPEC countries have been increasing exports rapidly: Indeed, ahead of the expected export losses from Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have increased exports sharply. According to tanker tracking data from ClipperData, OPEC exports increased 1.8 mb/d from May to June, of which 1.6 mb/d came from these three countries, whilst Iran's export have not declined much yet. As this oil works its way through the system over the next 4-8 weeks, inventory data is likely to remain softer than it would otherwise have been. Still, a large build is improbable - so far we have observed draws: The global oil market has been undersupplied by ~0.2 mb/d so far this year, according to IEA data.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group