Oil Price - August 30

[dan_s]

Most of this is just the usual BS to explain a small daily move in the price, but the Wall Street Gang is at least starting to realize the Trump is serious about regime change in Iran. - Dan

WTI crude oil prices settled higher Thursday as traders continued to cheer a bullish U.S. petroleum report from a day earlier, and signs of tightening global crude supplies amid falling Iranian exports. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for October delivery rose 1.1% to settle at $70.25 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent added 0.66% to trade at $77.97 a barrel. < When President Trump drops the hammer down on Iran, Brent will spike to $90/bbl (just my WAG on where this is heading).

Crude oil prices remained on track to post a monthly gain as a sharp drop in U.S. inventories and disruptions to Iranian crude exports has renewed investor bets on a possible shortage in global oil supplies, which would support oil prices. < So... now the Wall Street Gang says the "glut" is officially over.

Iran's oil exports are expected to drop from 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to just 1.5 million bpd in September, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week.

President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement in May, allowing sanctions against Iran to snap back into place. The first wave of sanctions went into effect last month and a second set of sanctions on Iran's crude exports are slated for early November.

OPEC is closely monitoring supply levels to avert a possible shortage and will reportedly discuss in December, whether members can raise production to make up the shortfall from an expected fall in Iranian crude. < OPEC is already tapped out.

Following an agreement in June to return to 100% compliance with oil output cuts that began in January 2017, OPEC has begun raising output, reducing its compliance with oil cuts to 109% last month from 120% in June.

Oil prices had made a bullish start to the session as investors continued to cheer an upbeat EIA report, released Wednesday, showing U.S. crude supplies fell by 2.566 million barrels last week, beating expectations for a draw of just 0.686 million barrels.

The large draw in crude supplies comes as imports fell by about 0.657 million bpd, while exports rose by 0.624 million bpd, data from EIA showed.

"Yesterday's EIA report added an unexpectedly bullish note to US crude futures, as crude stocks drew despite a downturn in refinery intake," said JBC Energy. "The main culprit was a second consecutive week of lower imports."

Oil-market observers will likely turn to the Baker Hughes rig count data Friday for signs that U.S. output continues to tighten after data on Wednesday showed U.S. oil output growth steadied.

[ChuckGeb]

Whether or not and to what extent Trump administration grants waivers to India in the coming weeks will be very telling on whether or not oil prices will spike.

[dan_s]

If 100% of Iranian oil is taken off the market and they decide to play "hard ball" with their nuke program, oil will soon be over $100/bbl. We do not want that to happen because as nice as it would be in the short-term, it would likely push the global economy into a recession.

If 50% of the Iranian oil is taken off the market and they decide to play "hard ball" then oil will probably go to $75-$80 range. If they to anything to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, oil goes to $150.

Iranian oil exports are already falling much faster than the "experts" thought they would.

The only way that oil doesn't go over $75/bbl before year-end is if Iran very quickly agrees to scrap all of their nuke program and allow inspectors to verify it. The chance of that happening is very small IMO.

Iran has sponsored terrorist that have killed 100's of thousands of people. Trump is the first president that has the "guts" to do anything about it. It is now up the Iranian people to make "regime change" actually happen.