Natural Gas Demand

[dan_s]

The next five weeks are the peak of the fall "Shoulder Season" for natural gas. Storage builds will be in the 80 to 100 Bcf per week for the next five weeks. Then they drop steadily from mid-October to mid-November. Draws form storage begin the 3rd week of November. Last year, draws started a week early as we escaped Global Warming for one more year.

Hurricane Florence will cause a lot of power outages, which will lower demand for power generation in the Carolinas. So, we may see a triple digit build for the week ending September 21. My guess is that we are talking about a ~10 Bcf decline in demand for the week.

Regardless, ngas storage should be 3,250 to 3,300 Bcf when draws begin for the winter heating season. The 5-year average for mid-November is 3,850 Bcf.

In case you are wondering, gas storage in Western Canada is also below the 5-year average and the winter heating season already started.

TPH Morning Note:
"Like the “sidler” in Seinfeld, Old Man Winter snuck up on us (we were golfing last weekend!), pushing Calgary temperatures below freezing, with the first snowflakes forecast to come this weekend -- and we doubt a pack of tic-tacs will solve the problem. The weather is already showing up in the demand data, as intra-Alberta demand has averaged 5.1bcfd this week, one full bcf above year ago levels. We're expecting smaller builds each of the next 2 weeks, as a 400mmcfd maintenance project in USJR is resulting in reduced field receipts and IT curtailments. The maintenance began halfway through the reporting cycle, so we're looking for a 3bcf build next week, and 1-2bcf build the following week. Yesterday's print (last week's data) showed Western Canadian gas storage built by 5bcf, in line with expectations, bringing storage to 370bcf, holding flat at 11% below the 5-year average. On the other side of the country, Dawn reported an 11bcf build, putting Eastern Canada storage flat to the 5-year average."