Iran is going down

[dan_s]

Bloomberg 9-18-2018:
Iranian oil exports have plunged about 35 percent since April, the month before Trump ripped up the diplomatic deal that Barack Obama negotiated to curtail Tehran’s nuclear program and announced new oil sanctions. "Iranian oil exports are coming down pretty hard," said Roger Diwan, a veteran oil analyst at consultant IHS Markit Ltd.

Read: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... il-exports

There is NO WAY that U.S. shale + Saudi Arabia + Russia can make up for this much less crude oil from Iran

The unilateral American sanctions, which formally only take effect on Nov 4., have scared buyers in Europe and Asia, including Japan and India. In the first two weeks of September, Iran sold an average of 1.6 million barrels a day, down from 2.5 million barrels a day in April, according to Bloomberg tanker tracking.

A group of oil-market analysts predicted in April that sanctions wouldn’t cut exports by more than 800,000 barrels a day. < Now we see Iranian oil exports down at least 900,000 BOPD and the full impact of the U.S. sanctions is still seven weeks away. - Dan.

Even though European countries opposed Trump’s actions, and have reassured Iran’s government that they want the nuclear deal to continue, European refiners have had little choice but to comply with sanctions. Washington can cut off access to the U.S. financial system for any company judged to be doing business with Iran.

With early indications that European nations and Japan will stop buying Iranian crude altogether next month, the country’s exports can easily drop another 350,000 barrels a day by November, down to about 1.3 million barrels a day. South Korea, a major importer of Iranian crude in the past, hasn’t shipped any oil from Iran for 75 days.
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MY TAKE: If the civilized world sticks together, there will be regime change in the world's largest sponsor of global terrorism. It is about time!