Natural Gas prices are going a lot higher this winter
Natural Gas prices are going a lot higher this winter
Here is the link to my special podcast: https://youtu.be/f6RFEllrUfk
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas prices are going a lot higher this winter
Natural gas demand is going UP, UP, UP because U.S. natural gas is the cheapest form of energy on this planet and it is abundant and clean burning. The EIA has been and continues to underestimate how strong demand is for U.S. natural gas.
New Power Plants Invest $25B in Appalachian Basin . Business Journal Daily .
A new report issued by Energy In Depth shows that natural gas-powered energy plants either in operation or in various stages of development have attracted more than $25 billion worth of new investment to the Appalachian Basin. The report comes on the heels of an announcement Tuesday that the Lordstown Energy Center, a $1 billion, 940-megawatt combined cycle-energy plant, is now operational and producing electrical power. According to Energy In Depth, 29 new power plants with a capacity of 475-megawatts or greater are in operation, under construction, or in the various stages of the permitting process in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. When operating at full capacity, the 29 plants would generate a combined 26,086 megawatts of power. Total construction jobs would amount to 17,800, the industry group reports. Ten plants are either in operation or slated for Ohio, 16 are in operation or in various stages of development in Pennsylvania, and three are in the works in West Virginia, the advocacy group reports. Among the plants under construction in Pennsylvania is the Hickory Run Energy Center in Lawrence County, Pa., which represents an $863 million investment.
New Power Plants Invest $25B in Appalachian Basin . Business Journal Daily .
A new report issued by Energy In Depth shows that natural gas-powered energy plants either in operation or in various stages of development have attracted more than $25 billion worth of new investment to the Appalachian Basin. The report comes on the heels of an announcement Tuesday that the Lordstown Energy Center, a $1 billion, 940-megawatt combined cycle-energy plant, is now operational and producing electrical power. According to Energy In Depth, 29 new power plants with a capacity of 475-megawatts or greater are in operation, under construction, or in the various stages of the permitting process in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. When operating at full capacity, the 29 plants would generate a combined 26,086 megawatts of power. Total construction jobs would amount to 17,800, the industry group reports. Ten plants are either in operation or slated for Ohio, 16 are in operation or in various stages of development in Pennsylvania, and three are in the works in West Virginia, the advocacy group reports. Among the plants under construction in Pennsylvania is the Hickory Run Energy Center in Lawrence County, Pa., which represents an $863 million investment.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas prices are going a lot higher this winter
Devin McDermott – Morgan Stanley
October 10, 2018 4:01 AM GMT
"Post a ~10% rally, natural gas prices now reflect near-term tightness. Our recent natural gas Insight note, Entering a New Cycle, highlighted short-term upside in natural gas prices into year-end, with oversupply taking hold in 2019 and accelerating thereafter.
Over the past 15 days, the prompt contract for Henry Hub natural gas has rallied ~10%, and now trades at roughly our unchanged $3.30/MMBtu 4Q18 target. As a result, we no longer forecast near-term upside and instead see balanced upside and downside risks into year end, with weather a key variable. Longer-term, we continue to see price risk skewed to the downside. Why has front-month natural gas traded higher? We have been constructive on natural gas into year-end due to historically low gas in storage and slowing supply growth from pipeline constraints in the Permian and pipeline delays in Appalachia.
Three key catalysts have drawn attention to the near-term bullish setup: 1) slowing Marcellus supply growth due to delays in the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline (in-service as of 10/6); 2) production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Michael (~0.3 Bcf/d of production was shut in on Monday 10/8); and 3) a colder revision in the near-term weather forecast (which is supportive for heating demand). We continue to forecast end-October natural gas inventories of ~3.3 Tcf (trillion cubic feet), below the 5 year average of ~3.8 Tcf."
October 10, 2018 4:01 AM GMT
"Post a ~10% rally, natural gas prices now reflect near-term tightness. Our recent natural gas Insight note, Entering a New Cycle, highlighted short-term upside in natural gas prices into year-end, with oversupply taking hold in 2019 and accelerating thereafter.
Over the past 15 days, the prompt contract for Henry Hub natural gas has rallied ~10%, and now trades at roughly our unchanged $3.30/MMBtu 4Q18 target. As a result, we no longer forecast near-term upside and instead see balanced upside and downside risks into year end, with weather a key variable. Longer-term, we continue to see price risk skewed to the downside. Why has front-month natural gas traded higher? We have been constructive on natural gas into year-end due to historically low gas in storage and slowing supply growth from pipeline constraints in the Permian and pipeline delays in Appalachia.
Three key catalysts have drawn attention to the near-term bullish setup: 1) slowing Marcellus supply growth due to delays in the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline (in-service as of 10/6); 2) production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Michael (~0.3 Bcf/d of production was shut in on Monday 10/8); and 3) a colder revision in the near-term weather forecast (which is supportive for heating demand). We continue to forecast end-October natural gas inventories of ~3.3 Tcf (trillion cubic feet), below the 5 year average of ~3.8 Tcf."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group