In the last 3 months, 13 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for PXD. The average price target among the analysts is $238.40. The 13 valuations range from $216 to $259.
PXD is trading around $175 this morning.
33 analysts' forecasts are on files with Reuters/First Call, which gives you an idea of how much old data is included in First Call price targets for all of these companies.
My valuation is now $247/share, assuming $65/bbl WTI for all future periods. < Commodity prices used in all of my forecast/valuation models are adjusted for regional price differentials (very big in the Permian Basin now) and each company's hedges. PXD has less than 30% of their crude oil hedged for 2019 with collars that have $60.74 ceilings. They also have firm takeaway capacity agreements in place for most of their forecast production.
In addition to higher oil prices going forward, higher natural gas prices in the Permian Basin will also help PXD. Natural gas prices have been hammered in the Permian Basin this year because production in the region exceeds pipeline takeaway capacity. PXD's realized commodity prices in Q2 were $56.20/bbl for oil, $1.70/mcf for natural gas and $21.50/bbl for NGLs. All were lower than their Q1 realized prices.
PXD is on-track for 20% YOY production growth
Production mix is approximately 57% crude oil, 23% natural gas and 20% NGLs
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I am now working on PDC Energy's forecast, which is the last of the Sweet 16 forecast models that I need to update.
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Update - Oct 11
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Update - Oct 11
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group