EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 5

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 5, 2018

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending October 5, 2018, which was 352,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.7 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million barrels per day last week, down by 568,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.8 million barrels per day, 5.3% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 693,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 187,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.0 million barrels from the previous week.
At 410.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 11.3 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels per day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, down by 2.6% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.2 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, up by 8.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Refinery utilization will ramp back up in late October, post "maintenance season".

Benny Wong – Morgan Stanley
October 11, 2018 3:31 AM GMT

US refinery turnarounds are set to peak in a week, although a shifted Midwest maintenance profile moderates ramp down.

Refinery Sector Update:

West Coast cracks rebound while East Coast stays in the cellar.
Marking 3Q18 EPS once more before company conversations and moderating 3Q EPS by 3% to 6% below consensus. We have marked our MS Base Crack Indicator modestly up 2% to $13.85/bbl for the quarter. Notably, we have also marked our Brent-Maya assumption for the quarter to $12.20/bbl (from $10.00/bbl) and WTI-SCO to $4.41 (from $5.25/bbl). We see the greatest negative revision risk for HFC and PBF.
Peak US maintenance activity to be reached next week, with a shifted Midwest maintenance profile moderating ramp down by ~2 weeks. There is currently ~1.4 MMbbl/d of US refining capacity offline with planned maintenance and that is expected to climb to ~1.7 MMbbl/d by mid-October. Coming out of peak activity, refining TARs will decline back to ~1.4 MMbbl/d in early November before rapidly dropping off thereafter.