Oil Price Forecast - Oct 17

[dan_s]

Raymond James:
"Maintaining our Full Year Crude Forecast: In 3Q18, WTI came in very close to our forecast for $70 (< 1% below). However, Brent
averaged 6% below our model. WTI remains around $70/bbl, a level that we expect the commodity to remain at through the end of
the year. As such, we are maintaining our 3Q/4Q estimate for WTI of $70/bbl and 3Q and 4Q estimate for Brent of $80/bbl and
$85/bbl, respectively."

For 2019 RJ is forecasting $67.50 WTI and $80 Brent

"Which E&P Names are Best Positioned when it comes to In-Basin Price Fluctuations? We see WPX, Pioneer, and Parsley are
the best-positioned among Permian-heavy operators when it comes to being insulated from in-basin price fluctuations in 2019.
Each has less than 30% of their 2019 expected Permian crude production exposed to Midland pricing. On the flip side, we see
Cimarex, and Matador as being highly exposed to the lower Midland spot pricing, which, given our midstream group’s improved
outlook for Permian differentials, isn’t as dire as we would have projected previously."

[dan_s]

More company specific comments from RJ below on 10-17-2018:

E&P Outlook into 3Q18 Earnings: Looking to 3Q earnings season, E&P stocks are experiencing a bullish macro tailwind, while
investors hope to put memories of a very weak 2Q earnings season behind them. Despite continued strength in crude prices, the
market continues to favor names that “walk the talk” on capital discipline and we expect expectations of outsized cash flow
generation in 2019 to favor top rated oily names on the whole (examples include Continental (CLR) and Whiting (WLL)). Our top E&P
picks include: Concho (CXO), Continental (CLR), Parsley (PE), and WildHorse (WRD). We expect the number one theme this earnings
season will be preliminary commentary around 2019 budgets. Other major industry themes to follow are likely more upbeat
Permian differential commentary (i.e differentials tightening sooner than expected). While the service environment on the
completion side remains loose, the drilling side is tightening with dayrates moving higher. Additionally, we expect commentary
around inflation in areas such as labor, support infrastructure, tariff-related steel costs, and obviously fuel-related cost inputs. We
heard very little in regard to weather issues this quarter, though one time issues impacted some during the quarter (WLL production
to see one time impact due to a fire in its Tarpon field). On the political front, we anticipate a favorable outcome for DJ Basin
exposed operators as it relates to Proposition 112 (increased drilling setback in Colorado). Therefore, for those willing to tolerate a
binary event, we’d add SRC Energy (SRCI) as a name to own into election results.

Company Specific Quick Thoughts: Here are some very quick thoughts on multiple names we think worth highlighting into the
quarter: APA (North Sea drives strong 4Q18/1Q19 production), APC (Permian likely drives production beat 2H18), AR (3Q capex likely
high, oil volumes weaker on trucking constraints), DVN (oil volumes closer to low end of guidance in 3Q), FANG (capex biased
higher), LPI (lower oil mix), PE (completion efficiencies should drive production beat), PXD (2019 Street capex needs to move ~10%
higher), RRC (leverage target remains important, could see more divestitures before YE18), SRCI (market only cares about Prop 112,
but Street 3Q18 capex estimates need to move much higher), SM (2019 capex biased lower), WLL (Tarpon fire pushes production
toward low end of guidance), WRD (realized pricing above expectations), WPX (timing of midstream sales will cloud preliminary 2019
outlook), and XEC (1H19 production estimates need to move lower).