"The question for 2019 will be whether shale can deliver even more production growth because the expected supply gap is even bigger. According to private equity group Burggraben Holding, the average rate of decline for existing sources (of oil) means we will need 3.1 million barrels per day of new sources just to replace the annual decline of old wells. Add in the historical demand increase -- about 1.5% annually -- and global production will need to come up with 4.6 million barrels per day of new supply.
Based on published project schedules, there are about 1.5 million barrels per day of production additions slated to go live in 2019 (outside of the U.S.), so shale and other sources need to come up with the other 3 million barrels per day. That's a tall order for shale, and if it can't be met, then companies will need to start spending big bucks on exploration & development to find new sources elsewhere."
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Oil Supply & Demand in 2019
Oil Supply & Demand in 2019
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group