Oil Price: What's Happening???

[dan_s]

I know some of you would like WTI to jump back to $60/bbl tomorrow, but I would rather see small "baby steps" of $0.25 to $0.50 per barrel increases day after day. Believe me, ten trading days of +$0.50/bbl is much better than one day of $5.00/bbl. Big spikes in the oil price just bring in more short sellers.

IMO oil in the $40s is insane and does not reflect the fundamentals. There is no GLUT of oil. WTI should be in the mid'-$50s now with increases to $60-$65 as it becomes clear that OPEC+ are doing their job. Saudi Arabia is definitely leading "the pack" by making larger than expected cuts and most of "the pack" wants and needs much higher oil prices than we have today.

The situation in Russia is much different, so it will take a few months before they can reduce production.

We need this stupid government shutdown to end and some progress on the U.S. / China trade talks. We are climbing a "Wall of Worry" and it takes time.