Peak Demand for Oil: We aren't even close

[dan_s]

EVs kill 352,000 bpd of oil demand.
Per OilPrice.com: Global EV adoption continues to rise, but the cumulative total displacement of oil from the transportation sector will only reach 352,000 bpd this year, less than 1 percent of the global oil market. Still, EV sales continue to increase. Note that is is from all of the EVs ever sold, not just the EVs sold in one year.

IEA says demand for oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day this year, despite their opinion that the global economy is showing signs of weakness. BTW IEA has a long history of under-estimating global demand growth each year.

Vitol sees peak oil demand in 15 years.
The world’s largest oil trader, Vitol, sees oil demand peaking within 15 years. “We anticipate that oil demand will continue to grow for the next 15 years, even with a marked increase in the sales of electric vehicles,” Russell Hardy, Vitol’s chief executive, said, according to the FT . “But that demand growth will begin to be impacted thereafter.” Vitol is reportedly looking at investments in cleaner fuels and other forms of renewable energy.

Shale oil production will peak within five years. This is my SWAG. Eventually all of the Tier One areas will be drilled out and when the good stuff rolls over there is now way to stop the decline. This has happened in every oilfield ever discovered.

[dan_s]

AMLO’s plan for Pemex could drag down both. Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is trying to rescue state-owned Pemex, which is suffering from declining oil production and the world’s largest pile of debt. However, his plan, to cut taxes on the company, could put public finances in jeopardy while doing little to turn the company or production around. “Serious trouble at Pemex can be truly toxic for sentiment and the broader economy, and would contaminate the sovereign balance sheet,’’ said Alberto Ramos, the chief Latin America economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.