EIA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - May 23

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 1,753 Bcf as of Friday, May 17, 2019, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 100 Bcf from the previous week, which compares to the five-year average build for this week of 89 Bcf.
Stocks were 137 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 274 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,027 Bcf.
At 1,753 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The 100 Bcf build hit my forecast on the nose, which doesn't happen very often. We'll probably see one or two more triple digit storage builds before summer heat spreads across the South and ramps up demand from gas fired power plants. The five-year average builds for the last two weeks of May are 92 Bcf and 102 Bcf.

Gas in storage needs to build to ~3,800 Bcf before the next winter heating season arrives in November.

So far, natural gas prices are holding above the prices that I'm using in my forecast models. All of the "gassers" I follow closely (AR, GPOR, RRC, SWN, CRK and GDP) are profitable with gas over $2.50. Plus, they all have a high percentage of their gas hedged.

[dan_s]

To help you understand the U.S. natural gas market, go here: http://americanoilman.homestead.com/GasStorage.html

The U.S. gas market is extremely "seasonal". The winter heating season is the BIG PEAK but demand also increases in the summer. Note at the table at the link above that storage build drop sharply in July and August. We've actually had draws from storage during Northeast heat waves.