As I post this WTI is trading at $53.40/bbl, up slightly from yesterday's close.
My guess is that WTI will flop around in the $52 to $55 range until (a) the OPEC+ group confirms their production/export limits for 2H2019 and (b) EIA begins to report the steady decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, which happens each summer. In the 3rd quarter we should start seeing more reports like the one below about IMO 2020 regulations on fuel supplies.
Reuters: Jet fuel costs could rise from new rules to improve air quality
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices for jet fuel for later this year and into 2020 are expected to rise due to new marine fuel regulations - as the need for lower-sulfur fuels in ships cuts into the available supply for similar distillates like diesel or jet fuel.
The IMO’s 2020 rules require ships globally to use fuels with a sulfur content below 0.5% from 3.5% beginning Jan. 1, 2020. It aims to improve human health by reducing air pollution from sea-going vessels.
Read more here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ship ... SKCN1TB2HL
Also drawing more attention should be tensions between the U.S. & Iran, the situations in Venezuela & Libya and IEA's "Oil Market Report" due out this week.
Oil Price - June 11
Oil Price - June 11
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Price - June 11
From OilPrice.com at 1PM CT
Oil prices rebounded a bit on Tuesday on Saudi assurances that OPEC+ would not let the oil market slide any further. “Prices are finding support from the prospect of OPEC oil production remaining restricted beyond mid-year,” Commerzbank said in a note.
Russia uncommitted to OPEC+ cuts. Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih traveled to Moscow to meet his counterpart, and the two apparently discussed the possibility that crude oil would crash below $40 per barrel without a deal in Vienna. While Russia has been cagey about committing to an extension, market analysts say the odds of a rollover in the cuts is likely.
U.S. considers sanctions on EU-Iran trade. The Trump administration is considering another round of sanctions that would target the European Union’s financial vehicle that was intended to keep trade alive with Iran. The U.S. sanctions would hit the financial entity Iran established to do business with the EU. Europe’s effort has largely been inadequate, but any U.S. move would damage its relationship with its European allies.
Iran won’t leave OPEC. Iran has no intention of leaving OPEC despite the fact that the group has been turned “into a political forum,” treating Iran like an enemy, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said. Iran has been outraged at the seeming cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. to block Iranian oil exports.
Oil prices rebounded a bit on Tuesday on Saudi assurances that OPEC+ would not let the oil market slide any further. “Prices are finding support from the prospect of OPEC oil production remaining restricted beyond mid-year,” Commerzbank said in a note.
Russia uncommitted to OPEC+ cuts. Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih traveled to Moscow to meet his counterpart, and the two apparently discussed the possibility that crude oil would crash below $40 per barrel without a deal in Vienna. While Russia has been cagey about committing to an extension, market analysts say the odds of a rollover in the cuts is likely.
U.S. considers sanctions on EU-Iran trade. The Trump administration is considering another round of sanctions that would target the European Union’s financial vehicle that was intended to keep trade alive with Iran. The U.S. sanctions would hit the financial entity Iran established to do business with the EU. Europe’s effort has largely been inadequate, but any U.S. move would damage its relationship with its European allies.
Iran won’t leave OPEC. Iran has no intention of leaving OPEC despite the fact that the group has been turned “into a political forum,” treating Iran like an enemy, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said. Iran has been outraged at the seeming cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. to block Iranian oil exports.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group