EiA - Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report - Aug 22

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,797 Bcf as of Friday, August 16, 2019, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 369 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 103 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,900 Bcf.
At 2,797 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

It is important that gas storage stays below the 5-year average for 13 more weeks.
> There are 13 more weeks (a quarter of a year) left in the "Refill Season" that ends on November 15.
> MY SWAG: If gas in storage goes above the 5-year average it may push ngas price under $2.00/MMBTU. It will be a short-lived dip if winter heating season starts on time.
> Mid-Sept to Mid-Oct is the second "Shoulder Season" when injections to storage go up again.
> The 5-year average build for the next 13 weeks is 825 Bcf, which would take storage up to 3,622 Bcf. < This is at the low end of what's needed to safely get us through a cold winter.

Demand for U.S. natural gas is growing at a much faster rate than demand for oil. However, supply is also growing very fast.

The Wall Street Gang has zero interest in the "gassers" these days, but weather can still have a big impact on demand and the price of gas.

[dan_s]

Our gassers are well insulated from natural gas prices through year-end by their aggressive hedging programs. However, the hedges aren't as good in 2020. They can survive a short period of $2.00 gas, but not if it becomes the "new normal". I'm sure that they are all praying for colder than normal winter and the completion of more LNG export facilities.

[k1f]

<<They [AR, GPOR, eg] can survive a short period of $2.00 gas, but not if it becomes the "new normal". >>

"Survive" is strong language. Are you talking bankruptcy among the Sweet16 here?

[dan_s]

No. All of our gassers (AR, GPOR, RRC and SWN) are profitable. Profitable companies don't go bankrupt.

Download the Sweet 16 main spreadsheet and look at tab one.