EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 12

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,518 Bcf as of Friday, December 6, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 73 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 593 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 14 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,532 Bcf.
At 3,518 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Over the six weeks ending December 6, 2019 the next draw from storage has exceeded the five year average by 140 Bcf. Most of it happened in the very cold week ending November 15, but we did have higher than average draws four of the six weeks. Weather still has a BIG IMPACT on natural gas demand.

My SWAG is that natural gas in storage will be ~3,100 Bcf at midnight on December 31st. That would put us on-track for storage going under 1,500 Bcf before the heating season ends in early April if we just have a normal winter in the eastern 2/3rds of the U.S. The 5-year average season ending storage is 1,637 Bcf.

NO ONE is bullish on natural gas prices, but a cold January should push Henry Hub over $2.40 for Q1, which is what I'm using in all of my forecast models.