Dec 27 Bloomberg is reporting that Japanese oil imports rose by 6.4% in November vs. October levels to 2.94 MMBopd, according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry.
On December 24 Reuters reported India's oil imports in November grew at their fastest pace in seven months, while diesel exports soared the most in about two years, indicating higher refinery runs amid falling local demand for gasoil due to a slowing economy. India's November oil imports rose 12.7%, the biggest year-on-year increase since April, preliminary data from the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed.
Global Oil Market Update - Dec 29
Global Oil Market Update - Dec 29
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Global Oil Market Update - Dec 29
The Energy Report Monday December 30, 2019
By Phil Flynn Dec 30, 2019 10:30AM ET
Rig Rout
Should all the oil rigs be forgot and never bought to mind? The U.S. oil rig count rang out the old year with the first drop in U.S. oil rigs since 2016. So despite record U.S. oil and gas production, the rig count drop is signaling that we should start to see production plateau.
Baker Hughes released its final rig count of the year and decade, and it ended on a cautionary note. They reported that total oil and gas rig count is down 26% from a year ago as the count came in at a year over year decline of 278 rigs. Oil rigs fell by eight rigs week over week and gas rigs held steady at 125. While U.S. production is reportedly at 12.8 million barrels a day according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) bankruptcies and investment retrenchment could signal a pullback in us production growth.
This, along with bullish EIA data and topping action in the U.S. dollar, not to mention a dash of geopolitical risk factors heating up over the weekend should lend support to oil as we get ready to close out this decade.
The EIA reported that Crude oil inventories decreased by 5.5 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, from the previous week, the weekly Energy Information Administration survey reveals. The drop more than the expectations of a 1.7-Million-barrel draw. U.S. crude oil inventories are only 2% above the five-year average for mid-December. < And we consume a lot more fuel and other products made from oil than we did five years ago.
U.S. crude oil refinery runs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week, up 419,000 barrels per day from the average for the week ended Dec. 13. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity for the week of Dec. 20.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the “U.S. carried out airstrikes against an Iranian-backed Shiite militia group in Iraq and Syria, in the Trump administration’s most forceful response to Tehran’s assertive posture in the region. The Pentagon said Sunday’s attack targeted three of the Kataib Hezbollah militia’s locations in Iraq and two in Syria, including weapons-storage and command facilities. Officials said the strikes came in response to an attack on Friday in which more than 30 rockets were fired at an Iraqi military base near Kirkuk, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding four U.S. troops.
A media official for Kataib Hezbollah said 25 of the group’s members had been killed and at least 20 wounded in the strikes along the Iraq-Syria border. An Iraqi Interior Ministry official put the death toll at 15 and added that a weapons-storage facility was set on fire. Among the dead was a commander known as Abu Ali al-Khazaali, the officials said. U.S. officials said Kataib Hezbollah is armed by Iran and has strong links to Tehran’s paramilitary Quds Force.
The set up for oil looks solid with gains expected through the end of the year. Oil Products should also get support as the markets adjust to the new IMO rules that start January 1. Hedgers should be hedged. Besides, we are very optimistic about the global economy. The US economy is leading and that should continue to set the stage for above-average global oil demand growth.
Natural gas saw a bullish report, yet warmth in the Midwest offset its impact. The EIA reported that the EIA reported Friday that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 161 billion cubic feet for the week ending December 20. Analysts were looking for a drop of 150 to 153 bcf.
By Phil Flynn Dec 30, 2019 10:30AM ET
Rig Rout
Should all the oil rigs be forgot and never bought to mind? The U.S. oil rig count rang out the old year with the first drop in U.S. oil rigs since 2016. So despite record U.S. oil and gas production, the rig count drop is signaling that we should start to see production plateau.
Baker Hughes released its final rig count of the year and decade, and it ended on a cautionary note. They reported that total oil and gas rig count is down 26% from a year ago as the count came in at a year over year decline of 278 rigs. Oil rigs fell by eight rigs week over week and gas rigs held steady at 125. While U.S. production is reportedly at 12.8 million barrels a day according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) bankruptcies and investment retrenchment could signal a pullback in us production growth.
This, along with bullish EIA data and topping action in the U.S. dollar, not to mention a dash of geopolitical risk factors heating up over the weekend should lend support to oil as we get ready to close out this decade.
The EIA reported that Crude oil inventories decreased by 5.5 million barrels during the week ended Dec. 20, from the previous week, the weekly Energy Information Administration survey reveals. The drop more than the expectations of a 1.7-Million-barrel draw. U.S. crude oil inventories are only 2% above the five-year average for mid-December. < And we consume a lot more fuel and other products made from oil than we did five years ago.
U.S. crude oil refinery runs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week, up 419,000 barrels per day from the average for the week ended Dec. 13. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity for the week of Dec. 20.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the “U.S. carried out airstrikes against an Iranian-backed Shiite militia group in Iraq and Syria, in the Trump administration’s most forceful response to Tehran’s assertive posture in the region. The Pentagon said Sunday’s attack targeted three of the Kataib Hezbollah militia’s locations in Iraq and two in Syria, including weapons-storage and command facilities. Officials said the strikes came in response to an attack on Friday in which more than 30 rockets were fired at an Iraqi military base near Kirkuk, killing a U.S. contractor and wounding four U.S. troops.
A media official for Kataib Hezbollah said 25 of the group’s members had been killed and at least 20 wounded in the strikes along the Iraq-Syria border. An Iraqi Interior Ministry official put the death toll at 15 and added that a weapons-storage facility was set on fire. Among the dead was a commander known as Abu Ali al-Khazaali, the officials said. U.S. officials said Kataib Hezbollah is armed by Iran and has strong links to Tehran’s paramilitary Quds Force.
The set up for oil looks solid with gains expected through the end of the year. Oil Products should also get support as the markets adjust to the new IMO rules that start January 1. Hedgers should be hedged. Besides, we are very optimistic about the global economy. The US economy is leading and that should continue to set the stage for above-average global oil demand growth.
Natural gas saw a bullish report, yet warmth in the Midwest offset its impact. The EIA reported that the EIA reported Friday that domestic supplies of natural gas fell by 161 billion cubic feet for the week ending December 20. Analysts were looking for a drop of 150 to 153 bcf.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Global Oil Market Update - Dec 29
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose to three-month highs on Monday, underpinned by optimism over an expected China-U.S. trade deal and upbeat industrial data, while traders kept a close watch on the Middle East following U.S. air strikes in Iraq and Syria.
Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were up 63 cents, or nearly 1 percent, at $68.79 a barrel. The international benchmark has risen around 27% in 2019.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) rose 34 cents, or 0.55%, to $62.06 a barrel by 1320 GMT. The U.S. benchmark is up about 36% so far this year.
"Oil prices continue to remain supported near frothy levels as tensions in the Middle East could see key disruptions in the region, shrinking U.S. stockpiles alleviate oversupply concerns and the U.S. and Chinese look to wrap up the phase-one trade deal," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The Middle East is on edge after the United States carried out air strikes on Sunday against the Kataib Hezbollah militia group, while protesters in Iraq on Saturday briefly forced the closure of its southern Nassiriya oilfield.
Also, Libyan state oil firm NOC said it is considering the closure of its western Zawiya port and evacuating staff from the refinery due to clashes nearby.
Oil prices were also supported by declining U.S. crude stocks, which fell by 5.5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, far exceeding a 1.7-million-barrel drop forecast in a Reuters poll.
In China, factory activity had likely expanded again in December on stronger external demand and an infrastructure push at home although the pace of growth is set to ease as markets await more certainty on a U.S.-China trade truce, a Reuters poll showed.
China's Commerce Ministry said it is in close touch with the United States on the signing of a long-awaited trade deal.
The two countries on Dec. 13 announced a "Phase one" agreement that reduces some U.S. tariffs in exchange for what U.S. officials said would be a big jump in Chinese purchases of American farm products and other goods.
Some analysts, however, cited abundant global crude stocks as a major obstacle in 2020 to efforts to rein in output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia.
"Even as OPEC and its non-OPEC partners endeavor to make additional supply cuts in Q1 2020, we are not convinced this will be sufficient to avert large global inventory," said Harry Tchilinguirian, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP).
"We remain of the opinion that oil fundamentals continue to present downside risk."
Brent crude futures (LCOc1) were up 63 cents, or nearly 1 percent, at $68.79 a barrel. The international benchmark has risen around 27% in 2019.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) rose 34 cents, or 0.55%, to $62.06 a barrel by 1320 GMT. The U.S. benchmark is up about 36% so far this year.
"Oil prices continue to remain supported near frothy levels as tensions in the Middle East could see key disruptions in the region, shrinking U.S. stockpiles alleviate oversupply concerns and the U.S. and Chinese look to wrap up the phase-one trade deal," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
The Middle East is on edge after the United States carried out air strikes on Sunday against the Kataib Hezbollah militia group, while protesters in Iraq on Saturday briefly forced the closure of its southern Nassiriya oilfield.
Also, Libyan state oil firm NOC said it is considering the closure of its western Zawiya port and evacuating staff from the refinery due to clashes nearby.
Oil prices were also supported by declining U.S. crude stocks, which fell by 5.5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20, far exceeding a 1.7-million-barrel drop forecast in a Reuters poll.
In China, factory activity had likely expanded again in December on stronger external demand and an infrastructure push at home although the pace of growth is set to ease as markets await more certainty on a U.S.-China trade truce, a Reuters poll showed.
China's Commerce Ministry said it is in close touch with the United States on the signing of a long-awaited trade deal.
The two countries on Dec. 13 announced a "Phase one" agreement that reduces some U.S. tariffs in exchange for what U.S. officials said would be a big jump in Chinese purchases of American farm products and other goods.
Some analysts, however, cited abundant global crude stocks as a major obstacle in 2020 to efforts to rein in output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia.
"Even as OPEC and its non-OPEC partners endeavor to make additional supply cuts in Q1 2020, we are not convinced this will be sufficient to avert large global inventory," said Harry Tchilinguirian, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP).
"We remain of the opinion that oil fundamentals continue to present downside risk."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group