Opening Prices:
WTI is up 87c to $50.44/Bbl, and Brent is up $1.05 to $54.32/Bbl.
Natural gas is up 0.9c to $1.775/MMBtu.
EPG Members are invited to attend the Aegis Energy webinar on February 13 at 2 PM CST.
You can register by clicking here: https://aegis-energy.zoom.us/webinar/re ... P7YOeImKNA
Topics from LNG oversupply fears to the coronavirus’ impact will be covered.
Aegis also recently changed their view on natural gas and will walk through their thought process and reasoning behind the change.
Closing Prices:
WTI prompt month (MAR 20) was up $0.37 on the day, to settle at $49.94/Bbl.
NG prompt month (MAR 20) was up $0.022 on the day, to settle at $1.788/MMBtu.
Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 11 and link to Aegis Webinar
Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 11 and link to Aegis Webinar
Last edited by dan_s on Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 11 and link to Aegis Webinar
Investing.com - Oil prices bounced Tuesday, rebounding after recent hefty losses, helped by reports that the outbreak of the coronavirus in China may be peaking. However, doubts still remain about the extent and timing of future output cuts from major producers.
By 9:15 AM ET (1415 GMT), U.S. crude futures were 2.1% higher at $50.62 a barrel, while futures on Brent, the global crude benchmark, were up 2.2% at $54.66 a barrel.
The oil market has fallen for five weeks in a row as the virus has fed through to a sharp drop in Chinese demand. Combined losses over the five weeks stood at more than 22% for both benchmarks, leaving them in bear market territory, and susceptible to a bounce.
The World Health Organization put the death toll in China from the virus Tuesday at 1,017 people, with over 42,000 cases confirmed. The number of confirmed new cases on Tuesday was down 19% from Monday's level and a senior Chinese epidemiologist told Reuters he expected the virus to have peaked by the end of the month.
Even so, analysts at Oslo-based Rystad estimate global oil demand growth will fall by 900,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, with China accounting for one third of that.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has slashed its forecasts for Chinese GDP growth this quarter to around a 1% annualized pace, on the assumption that contagion peaks in March and factories slowly resume opening this month. It then expects a rebound to an annualized 9.3% in the second quarter.
Should the contagion not peak until April, the economy could contract in the first quarter, with a rebound spread over the second and third quarters, the JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said.
In supply news, Argus Media reported Kazakh officials as saying they have been asked to implement a cut of 1.5% of its total oil production. This would translate into something approaching the 600,000 barrels a day cut that the so-called OPEC+ group's technical officials suggested last week.
The group still awaits a response from Russia on whether it would back deeper cuts and extend the current deal through until the end of the year.
“Meanwhile the larger OPEC+ meeting is still scheduled for 5 and 6 March,” said ING analysts in a research note, adding that many in the market see this as waiting too long to take action to offset the demand destruction.
In any case, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said Tuesday, "Their ability to impact oil prices in the manner in which they did, you know, three, four, five decades ago is just fundamentally different." Brouillette was quoted by Reuters on the sidelines of a UN conference in Vienna.
By 9:15 AM ET (1415 GMT), U.S. crude futures were 2.1% higher at $50.62 a barrel, while futures on Brent, the global crude benchmark, were up 2.2% at $54.66 a barrel.
The oil market has fallen for five weeks in a row as the virus has fed through to a sharp drop in Chinese demand. Combined losses over the five weeks stood at more than 22% for both benchmarks, leaving them in bear market territory, and susceptible to a bounce.
The World Health Organization put the death toll in China from the virus Tuesday at 1,017 people, with over 42,000 cases confirmed. The number of confirmed new cases on Tuesday was down 19% from Monday's level and a senior Chinese epidemiologist told Reuters he expected the virus to have peaked by the end of the month.
Even so, analysts at Oslo-based Rystad estimate global oil demand growth will fall by 900,000 barrels a day in the first quarter, with China accounting for one third of that.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) has slashed its forecasts for Chinese GDP growth this quarter to around a 1% annualized pace, on the assumption that contagion peaks in March and factories slowly resume opening this month. It then expects a rebound to an annualized 9.3% in the second quarter.
Should the contagion not peak until April, the economy could contract in the first quarter, with a rebound spread over the second and third quarters, the JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said.
In supply news, Argus Media reported Kazakh officials as saying they have been asked to implement a cut of 1.5% of its total oil production. This would translate into something approaching the 600,000 barrels a day cut that the so-called OPEC+ group's technical officials suggested last week.
The group still awaits a response from Russia on whether it would back deeper cuts and extend the current deal through until the end of the year.
“Meanwhile the larger OPEC+ meeting is still scheduled for 5 and 6 March,” said ING analysts in a research note, adding that many in the market see this as waiting too long to take action to offset the demand destruction.
In any case, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said Tuesday, "Their ability to impact oil prices in the manner in which they did, you know, three, four, five decades ago is just fundamentally different." Brouillette was quoted by Reuters on the sidelines of a UN conference in Vienna.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 11 and link to Aegis Webinar
The Phil Flynn Energy Report: February 11, 2020
10:44AM ET
Russia Still Studying
Oil is coming back in a classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as the market is starting to realize that a 22% correction in the price might be a fair assessment of the demand destruction created by the coronavirus so far. While the fallout from the coronavirus is not clear, we know there are attempts by China to get back to work. Factory restarts and the reality that China can’t stay locked down forever is giving oil some support, along with billions of dollars of Chinese economic stimulus. This, along with a slowdown in reported cases of the virus, is offsetting short-term concerns of China’s significant demand drop.
The comeback in oil happens even as Russia can't make up its mind when it comes to supporting more production cuts. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak says Russia is studying the market and needs more time “to assess the situation and determine a balanced approach based on market interests.” I am sure Novak can’t make up his mind on what to order at a restaurant, either. Yet reports say Russia and OPEC plan to meet on Wednesday.
In the meantime, oil recovery is also facing headwinds from a rising dollar. The coronavirus has brought safe-haven buying back into the U.S. dollar making testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell more critical for oil traders. Traders want to see if the Fed would be amenable to cutting rates because of the economic hit from coronavirus. If the Fed sounds more dovish, it will help oil attempt a recovery and maybe, if there is no bad news, put in a bottom.
Yet the virus still may have the final say. Reports that the virus is starting to run its course has the stock market flirting with record highs. Oil traders may begin looking past the glut and turn their thoughts to pent up demand. The market has a chance to be at a bottom as long as the virus news continues to get better.
Inventories are also going to be in play. The American Petroleum Institute will give us our first glimpse. We are likely going to see increases across the board.
Natural gas also is dealing with major oversupply issues. The nat gas tanked as winter is too mild to save us from massive oversupply. Production levels show no real sign of easing and energy infrastructure that has not caught up with or record production is not helping either. Someday, years in the future, we will look back and not believe how cheap natural gas was today.
10:44AM ET
Russia Still Studying
Oil is coming back in a classic turnaround Tuesday fashion as the market is starting to realize that a 22% correction in the price might be a fair assessment of the demand destruction created by the coronavirus so far. While the fallout from the coronavirus is not clear, we know there are attempts by China to get back to work. Factory restarts and the reality that China can’t stay locked down forever is giving oil some support, along with billions of dollars of Chinese economic stimulus. This, along with a slowdown in reported cases of the virus, is offsetting short-term concerns of China’s significant demand drop.
The comeback in oil happens even as Russia can't make up its mind when it comes to supporting more production cuts. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak says Russia is studying the market and needs more time “to assess the situation and determine a balanced approach based on market interests.” I am sure Novak can’t make up his mind on what to order at a restaurant, either. Yet reports say Russia and OPEC plan to meet on Wednesday.
In the meantime, oil recovery is also facing headwinds from a rising dollar. The coronavirus has brought safe-haven buying back into the U.S. dollar making testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell more critical for oil traders. Traders want to see if the Fed would be amenable to cutting rates because of the economic hit from coronavirus. If the Fed sounds more dovish, it will help oil attempt a recovery and maybe, if there is no bad news, put in a bottom.
Yet the virus still may have the final say. Reports that the virus is starting to run its course has the stock market flirting with record highs. Oil traders may begin looking past the glut and turn their thoughts to pent up demand. The market has a chance to be at a bottom as long as the virus news continues to get better.
Inventories are also going to be in play. The American Petroleum Institute will give us our first glimpse. We are likely going to see increases across the board.
Natural gas also is dealing with major oversupply issues. The nat gas tanked as winter is too mild to save us from massive oversupply. Production levels show no real sign of easing and energy infrastructure that has not caught up with or record production is not helping either. Someday, years in the future, we will look back and not believe how cheap natural gas was today.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group