GTE
Re: GTE
Based on my forecast it is a "Screaming Buy".
GTE and PMG both got hammered by the election results in Peru, which IMHO have very little impact on the companies.
GTE is going to report a nice increase in production when Q2 results come out.
GTE and PMG both got hammered by the election results in Peru, which IMHO have very little impact on the companies.
GTE is going to report a nice increase in production when Q2 results come out.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: GTE
> GTE is debt free.
> It is on-track to generate approximately $1.40 in cash flow per share this year, so it is trading at less than 5X CFPS.
> Production is on-track to go from 14,448 boepd in 2010 to over 18,000 boepd in 2011, then to over 24,000 boepd in 2012
> Production is heavily weighted to oil
> Oil is sold at a premium to WTI
> Incredible exploration upside
2nd quarter production should be up about 3,000 boepd over Q1 (oil should be up 2,600 bopd)
First Call EPS estimate for Q2 is $0.14 (same as my forecast) compared to 5 cents EPG in Q1
All of above = "Screaming Buy" to me.
I have been putting out a Sweet 16 portfolio for ten years. Many time a Screaming Buy has languished for several quarters then it is "discovered" by Wall Street. TGA last year is a prime example (up 450% in one year).
Hang tough with GTE.
PMG is another "Screaming Buy" that is starting to draw some attention.
> It is on-track to generate approximately $1.40 in cash flow per share this year, so it is trading at less than 5X CFPS.
> Production is on-track to go from 14,448 boepd in 2010 to over 18,000 boepd in 2011, then to over 24,000 boepd in 2012
> Production is heavily weighted to oil
> Oil is sold at a premium to WTI
> Incredible exploration upside
2nd quarter production should be up about 3,000 boepd over Q1 (oil should be up 2,600 bopd)
First Call EPS estimate for Q2 is $0.14 (same as my forecast) compared to 5 cents EPG in Q1
All of above = "Screaming Buy" to me.
I have been putting out a Sweet 16 portfolio for ten years. Many time a Screaming Buy has languished for several quarters then it is "discovered" by Wall Street. TGA last year is a prime example (up 450% in one year).
Hang tough with GTE.
PMG is another "Screaming Buy" that is starting to draw some attention.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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MBB
Re: GTE
CNBC video has Fred Kozak with these companies PMG.TO, TGA, GTE, also Pacific Rubilales Energy (favorite choice at the moment), Houston America.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000032419
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000032419
Re: GTE
Nice to see GTE join the party today. Next Tuesday I will be sending out a new "Sweet 16 Detailed Update" to all of our members. Here is what will be in the report for GTE.
Gran Tierra Energy, Inc. (AMEX: GTE) was added to the Sweet 16 on April 6, 2011. The share price has pulled back with the rest of the market but our opinion of the company is even stronger today.
Gran Tierra is based in Calgary, Canada. It currently holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Argentina. A detailed company profile and forecast for GTE is available under the Sweet 16 tab.
For the year 2010, GTE had record average annual production of 14,325 barrels of oil per day, which is a 13% increase from 2009. Their proved reserves at year end were 23.6 MMBO. GTE grew revenues for the year to $374.5 million, which is a 42% increase from 2009. 2010 net income was $37.2 million or $0.15 per share.
First quarter results were in-line with my forecast:
• Production of 14,547 boepd (98.8% oil & NGLs)
• Cash flow per share of $0.24
Gran Tierra recently announced that they have closed on the acquisition of Petrolifera Petroleum Limited (“Petrolifera”). The deal closed several months earlier than I thought it would. This deal and recent drilling results are the primary reasons I decided the time was right to promote GTE to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio. Petrolifera will add 3,000 boepd (80% oil) to GTE’s production in the 2nd quarter.
Moqueta Oil Discovery in Columbia will be a major driver of production and reserve growth over the next two years. Progress made during the first quarter.
• GTE successfully drilled and tested Moqueta-4 delineation well.
• Subsequent to the end of the quarter, successfully drilled the Moqueta-5 delineation well, which further increases the reserve potential of the field.
• No oil-water contact found in any wells drilled to date, so the field is much larger than original estimates.
• Construction of the Moqueta to Costayaco flow-line was completed in June, with results of the first long-term production tests expected in August.
• During the quarterly conference call the company stated that long-term testing will be done on each zone in each well, so this year’s production will be limited to about 500 bopd. They now believe the field will be capable of production at the pipeline capacity of 20,000 bopd in 2012.
I believe that the combination of Gran Tierra’s successful drilling program in 2010 and their very strong debt-free balance sheet positions the company for significant growth in 2011 and beyond. The recent pullback in the share price, primarily a result of several announced dry holes on exploration wells in Peru, offers investors a very attractive entry point.
Based in my forecast, estimated current Fair Value for GTE is $11.75 per share. GTE has significant exploration upside beyond this price.
GTE is a “Pure Play” on South American oil exploration and development opportunities; a region that I believe offers investors exceptional growth potential.
A word of caution: GTE will be drilling several High Risk / High Potential exploration wells during 2011. Therefore it carries more Dry Hole Risk than the other E&P companies in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.
Strong production growth is forecast in 2011. GTE’s capital program will fund an accelerated drilling program in 2011; a total of 21 wells, including their first exploration wells in Peru and Brazil. The company will be testing net risked resource potential over 250 million bbls of oil in 2011.
GTE has a $357 million capital program planned for 2011 that will be fully funded by operating cash flows.
GTE has a solid management team with international experience. They come from EnCana, ARCO, BP and Nexen; all world class organizations.
Gran Tierra Energy, Inc. (AMEX: GTE) was added to the Sweet 16 on April 6, 2011. The share price has pulled back with the rest of the market but our opinion of the company is even stronger today.
Gran Tierra is based in Calgary, Canada. It currently holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Brazil, Peru and Argentina. A detailed company profile and forecast for GTE is available under the Sweet 16 tab.
For the year 2010, GTE had record average annual production of 14,325 barrels of oil per day, which is a 13% increase from 2009. Their proved reserves at year end were 23.6 MMBO. GTE grew revenues for the year to $374.5 million, which is a 42% increase from 2009. 2010 net income was $37.2 million or $0.15 per share.
First quarter results were in-line with my forecast:
• Production of 14,547 boepd (98.8% oil & NGLs)
• Cash flow per share of $0.24
Gran Tierra recently announced that they have closed on the acquisition of Petrolifera Petroleum Limited (“Petrolifera”). The deal closed several months earlier than I thought it would. This deal and recent drilling results are the primary reasons I decided the time was right to promote GTE to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio. Petrolifera will add 3,000 boepd (80% oil) to GTE’s production in the 2nd quarter.
Moqueta Oil Discovery in Columbia will be a major driver of production and reserve growth over the next two years. Progress made during the first quarter.
• GTE successfully drilled and tested Moqueta-4 delineation well.
• Subsequent to the end of the quarter, successfully drilled the Moqueta-5 delineation well, which further increases the reserve potential of the field.
• No oil-water contact found in any wells drilled to date, so the field is much larger than original estimates.
• Construction of the Moqueta to Costayaco flow-line was completed in June, with results of the first long-term production tests expected in August.
• During the quarterly conference call the company stated that long-term testing will be done on each zone in each well, so this year’s production will be limited to about 500 bopd. They now believe the field will be capable of production at the pipeline capacity of 20,000 bopd in 2012.
I believe that the combination of Gran Tierra’s successful drilling program in 2010 and their very strong debt-free balance sheet positions the company for significant growth in 2011 and beyond. The recent pullback in the share price, primarily a result of several announced dry holes on exploration wells in Peru, offers investors a very attractive entry point.
Based in my forecast, estimated current Fair Value for GTE is $11.75 per share. GTE has significant exploration upside beyond this price.
GTE is a “Pure Play” on South American oil exploration and development opportunities; a region that I believe offers investors exceptional growth potential.
A word of caution: GTE will be drilling several High Risk / High Potential exploration wells during 2011. Therefore it carries more Dry Hole Risk than the other E&P companies in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.
Strong production growth is forecast in 2011. GTE’s capital program will fund an accelerated drilling program in 2011; a total of 21 wells, including their first exploration wells in Peru and Brazil. The company will be testing net risked resource potential over 250 million bbls of oil in 2011.
GTE has a $357 million capital program planned for 2011 that will be fully funded by operating cash flows.
GTE has a solid management team with international experience. They come from EnCana, ARCO, BP and Nexen; all world class organizations.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group