Working gas in storage was 2,210 Bcf as of Friday, April 24, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 70 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 783 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 360 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,850 Bcf.
At 2,210 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
About right for this time of year.
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - April 30
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - April 30
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - April 30
Devin McDermott – Morgan Stanley
April 30, 2020 1:04 PM GMT
US natural gas prices have rallied to our post-OPEC target. Mounting supply cuts mean further upside is likely — but not sustainable. We see a path to well over $3 by 4Q20. Yet with an abundance of supply that "works" at $2.75 or less, it's a question of when, not if, production growth caps prices.
The collapse in oil prices could bring an end to the "sub-$3" era for US natural gas… Temporarily. While we have long held a structurally bearish view on natural gas (see our early 2017 nat gas launch: Don't Bet Against Innovation, Sub-$3 is the New Normal), the early March collapse of OPEC+ removed a key overhang: the abundance of "free" associated supply from oil wells. As a result, we increased our Henry Hub price forecast on March 9 (see Positioning For $30 (or Lower) Oil), with dry gas producers COG & EQT our preferred ways to play this theme. Following a sharp rise over the past month, the 2021 strip now sits around our initial $2.75 target. However, as capex cuts and supply curtailments continue to accelerate, further upside is likely — but is also not sustainable. Post a ~20% rally in the 2021 strip, further upside will hinge on size of the supply response. Substantial reductions in spending from domestic oil and gas producers should remove ~5 bcf/d (~5%) of domestic supply by year-end — the first annual decline since 2016, and one 3.5x the size. We see a supply void large enough to support well over $3/mmbtu Henry Hub by 4Q20, but the level of upside and duration of higher prices will hinge heavily on the rate at which gas producers (both public and private) increase activity.
April 30, 2020 1:04 PM GMT
US natural gas prices have rallied to our post-OPEC target. Mounting supply cuts mean further upside is likely — but not sustainable. We see a path to well over $3 by 4Q20. Yet with an abundance of supply that "works" at $2.75 or less, it's a question of when, not if, production growth caps prices.
The collapse in oil prices could bring an end to the "sub-$3" era for US natural gas… Temporarily. While we have long held a structurally bearish view on natural gas (see our early 2017 nat gas launch: Don't Bet Against Innovation, Sub-$3 is the New Normal), the early March collapse of OPEC+ removed a key overhang: the abundance of "free" associated supply from oil wells. As a result, we increased our Henry Hub price forecast on March 9 (see Positioning For $30 (or Lower) Oil), with dry gas producers COG & EQT our preferred ways to play this theme. Following a sharp rise over the past month, the 2021 strip now sits around our initial $2.75 target. However, as capex cuts and supply curtailments continue to accelerate, further upside is likely — but is also not sustainable. Post a ~20% rally in the 2021 strip, further upside will hinge on size of the supply response. Substantial reductions in spending from domestic oil and gas producers should remove ~5 bcf/d (~5%) of domestic supply by year-end — the first annual decline since 2016, and one 3.5x the size. We see a supply void large enough to support well over $3/mmbtu Henry Hub by 4Q20, but the level of upside and duration of higher prices will hinge heavily on the rate at which gas producers (both public and private) increase activity.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group