Since Texas doesn't send infected people back into crowded nursing homes, I think it is a better guide of what is really happening with COVID-19.
Texas has a population of ~30 million when you included non-citizens living here.
As of June 21
Texans tested = 1,715,177 or 5.72% of the state's population. The rest of us feel fine.
Those testing positive = 111,601 < Only 6.5% of those tested. Let that sink in. These are people who felt bad enough to go get tested.
Those who have recovered = 68,499
Those who have died = 2,182. < Only 1.96% of those who tested positive
Active cases = 40,920 < Very few are in hospitals. ~90% of people who test positive are sent home and told to treat it like the seasonal flu. 98% fully recover in two weeks.
So, for each Texan that has died from COVID-19 there are 13,749 that are still alive. Life is good in Texas!
COVID-19 won't come close to making the Top Ten causes of death in Texas this year. The year-over-year increases in suicides (thanks to job loss and poverty) will likely exceed COVID-19 deaths.
COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
On June 24, a friend who works in an ICU of one of the Texas Medical Center hospitals (one of the largest in Houston) that treats hospitalized COVID-19 patients said it is expected that by Friday the ICUs there will be FULL with COVID-19 patientsActive cases = 40,920 < Very few are in hospitals.
Your prediction of how COVID-19 will turn out statistically in 2020 in Texas is based on what data?
Your claim that 98% of those infected "fully recover in two weeks" is false. Recoveries typically take longer and, while overt symptoms generally disappear, long term sequellae (e.g., pulmonary compromise) are still emerging. The truth is that how many patients will have residual effects and what they will consist of just isn't known yet.
Your earlier prediction here ("they call it seasonal for a reason") that when summer came transmission would be greatly reduced has been proven wrong.
Just as was wrong your prediction that the number of active cases in the US would peak in mid-April at ~150,000 and then "go on steady decline." The number of active cases now in the US is almost 1.3 million, and still rising; Texas active cases = 56,001.
The number of new cases reported in Texas began spiking on June 16. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/ (scroll to daily new case graph). It is not known how much of this is the result of just more testing vs. accelerating community spread. That ICUs are starting to get full, however, would suggest that the spike is due not just to more testing of patients having only mild or no symptoms, but rather at least some increase in community spread.
We should hope that the spike in new case numbers, and hospitalization numbers, will soon reverse; but pandemics will take their natural course regardless of our "hope," influenced only by whatever mitigation measures are employed.
When, in May, we got to the point that health care providers had adequate quantities of PPE, there appeared to be enough beds and ventilators should hospitalization numbers rise, and much more was by then known about how to treat severe COVID-19 disease (though we have no strongly effective cures, yet), it was reasonable to open the economy in stages.
However, as people assess what risks they are willing to take, and decide what measures they will observe to try to reduce their risk, hopefully they are getting their information from sources that are more balanced and accurate than this forum.
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Recovery rate of active cases is now estimated at 99%.
FEAR and POVERTY caused by shutdowns will cause many more death.
If you check the Texas deaths carefully, less than 30% have been confirmed as caused by COVID-19. My guess is that in the blue states the COVID-19 deaths are even more overstated.
See for yourself here: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83
Here is the deal: It just doesn't matter. No matter how bad COVID-19 becomes we cannot shut down the global economy because the end result will be massive poverty and starvation. This is a world with many diseases and we have to adapt and live with them. You have freedom to stay home and have all your food delivered. It is your choice.
Recovery rate of active cases is now estimated at 99%.
FEAR and POVERTY caused by shutdowns will cause many more death.
If you check the Texas deaths carefully, less than 30% have been confirmed as caused by COVID-19. My guess is that in the blue states the COVID-19 deaths are even more overstated.
See for yourself here: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops ... b9cafc8b83
Here is the deal: It just doesn't matter. No matter how bad COVID-19 becomes we cannot shut down the global economy because the end result will be massive poverty and starvation. This is a world with many diseases and we have to adapt and live with them. You have freedom to stay home and have all your food delivered. It is your choice.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
You have continued to claim, falsely, that 98% of patients "fully recover." Apparently you "wish" to believe that, so you say it here as part of your rosy scenario as if it were true. It's not, and it is irresponsible to print it here.
Experts don't yet know what the long term effects will be for those whose acute symptoms resolve, even for those who are in the best of condition (professional athletes) when they become infected. From a WSJ article today:
“I have become increasingly convinced we’re going to find a large cadre of people who get infected, thankfully don’t die, recover from the acute illness but have meaningful long-term complications,” said Ashish Jha, a Harvard University professor of global health. “This is much more serious than a lot of folks have been describing, and I would not take the idea of young athletes getting infected lightly.”
Brown’s question about the future complications of this disease is common among the athletes preparing to start playing games again. We asked 17 cardiologists, epidemiologists, physicians and infectious disease experts how they would respond.
They say they can’t guess the long-term effects of a disease that’s only six months old because there hasn’t been a long term. They’re encouraged by the low risk the virus poses to professional athletes in the short term. But they’re troubled by the severe complications that appear to strike at random and the range of potential consequences even in patients who don’t show symptoms.
Their most pressing concerns for professional athletes include prolonged fatigue, shortness of breath and chest pain, blood clots, lung scarring and, in the worst-case scenario, heart inflammation triggering a cardiac arrest."
Your misdirection, by misstating that "It just doesn't matter" because the alternative is "shutting down the global economy," only further misinforms readers here. The problem is far more complicated, with health policy makers trying to strike a balance between adverse economic effects of shutdowns and, through mitigation measures, controlling spread of a disease whose lethality is known and whose long term effects are still being learned.
As does your claim that only 30% of reported Covid-19 deaths were really Covid-19 deaths. That's just another ridiculous falsehood that misinforms readers. Just as was your June 3 prediction that Covid-19 would be "gone by July."
Or your prediction this spring that US active cases would peak at about 150,000 in mid April and then "go on steady decline." There are now over 1.3 million active cases in the US.
You have been consistently wrong, both in stating relevant facts and in your predictions regarding the course of the disease.
You have been consistently wrong in claiming that outlets reporting the facts are doing so just to generate fear so that they can gain more control over the lives of the masses. Are some reports agenda driven? Probably. But not all. Claims you have made, that recoveries are in two weeks and are "full," that it is seasonal, that it would peak in April, that it would be gone in July, that only 30% of Covid deaths are actually Covid deaths, are the product of your wishful thinking, and perhaps made to support a "let's get it on" agenda to get energy consumption and the market up. Have there been excessive responses by some governors? Yes. But, even our own governor had to "pause" reopening and today "reverse" because daily case numbers and hospitalizations are spiking, in part because, apparently, many are unwilling to take fairly simple mitigation measures. Your obvious distortions and oversimplification do not enhance the usefulness of the forum.
Experts don't yet know what the long term effects will be for those whose acute symptoms resolve, even for those who are in the best of condition (professional athletes) when they become infected. From a WSJ article today:
“I have become increasingly convinced we’re going to find a large cadre of people who get infected, thankfully don’t die, recover from the acute illness but have meaningful long-term complications,” said Ashish Jha, a Harvard University professor of global health. “This is much more serious than a lot of folks have been describing, and I would not take the idea of young athletes getting infected lightly.”
Brown’s question about the future complications of this disease is common among the athletes preparing to start playing games again. We asked 17 cardiologists, epidemiologists, physicians and infectious disease experts how they would respond.
They say they can’t guess the long-term effects of a disease that’s only six months old because there hasn’t been a long term. They’re encouraged by the low risk the virus poses to professional athletes in the short term. But they’re troubled by the severe complications that appear to strike at random and the range of potential consequences even in patients who don’t show symptoms.
Their most pressing concerns for professional athletes include prolonged fatigue, shortness of breath and chest pain, blood clots, lung scarring and, in the worst-case scenario, heart inflammation triggering a cardiac arrest."
Your misdirection, by misstating that "It just doesn't matter" because the alternative is "shutting down the global economy," only further misinforms readers here. The problem is far more complicated, with health policy makers trying to strike a balance between adverse economic effects of shutdowns and, through mitigation measures, controlling spread of a disease whose lethality is known and whose long term effects are still being learned.
As does your claim that only 30% of reported Covid-19 deaths were really Covid-19 deaths. That's just another ridiculous falsehood that misinforms readers. Just as was your June 3 prediction that Covid-19 would be "gone by July."
Or your prediction this spring that US active cases would peak at about 150,000 in mid April and then "go on steady decline." There are now over 1.3 million active cases in the US.
You have been consistently wrong, both in stating relevant facts and in your predictions regarding the course of the disease.
You have been consistently wrong in claiming that outlets reporting the facts are doing so just to generate fear so that they can gain more control over the lives of the masses. Are some reports agenda driven? Probably. But not all. Claims you have made, that recoveries are in two weeks and are "full," that it is seasonal, that it would peak in April, that it would be gone in July, that only 30% of Covid deaths are actually Covid deaths, are the product of your wishful thinking, and perhaps made to support a "let's get it on" agenda to get energy consumption and the market up. Have there been excessive responses by some governors? Yes. But, even our own governor had to "pause" reopening and today "reverse" because daily case numbers and hospitalizations are spiking, in part because, apparently, many are unwilling to take fairly simple mitigation measures. Your obvious distortions and oversimplification do not enhance the usefulness of the forum.
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
Goldman-Sachs state level tracker shows that the number of coronavirus tests has increased 23% in two weeks, but the number of positive results is up by just 6.2%.
MY TAKE: Everything during an election year is about trying to win the elections.
By Dick Morris Friday, 26 June 2020
Democrats want, above all else, for President Donald Trump to be defeated.
Part of their plan is to so paralyze the country with fear of the virus as to delay any economic recovery until after Election Day in November.
Right now, the glass can be seen as half full or half empty. Virus deaths are down sharply while new cases and hospitalizations, particularly in states that never really closed down during the initial outbreak, are up.
The Trump administration says that the increase in cases is driven by an increase in testing, while pointing out that a disproportionate portion of those who test positive are younger people, not likely to die of the disease.
For them, it's more like a severe case of the ordinary flu.
The I & I editorial board, a spinoff of former writers for Investors Business Daily, feeds the narrative that the media is overplaying the virus’ comeback to trip up President Trump.
They write "the key gauge to watch is deaths [from COVID-19]. They’ve been falling since April and there’s strong reason to believe they’re lower than the official count suggests. < BTW in TEXAS only a third of the deaths listed as causes by COVID-19 have been confirmed. The other two-thirds the primary cause of death was something else.
Liberals counter that deaths are a lagging indicator since new infections take two weeks to manifest and even longer to be fatal.
Goldman-Sachs state level tracker shows that the number of coronavirus tests has increased 23% in two weeks, but he number of positive results is up by just 6.2%.
During that period, deaths are down by 12%.
As I & I writes, "CDC’s own estimates for what’s called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is about 0.26%. By contrast the rate for the regular flu is 0.1%, not much lower."
The I & I editorial also assails against the prevailing wind by saying that the official death rate may be itself overblown with many deaths reported to be due to the virus that are caused partially or entirely by something else.
Dr. Deborah L. Birx noted last month that the CDC death counts were 25% too high.
There is, of course, a financial incentive for healthcare institutions to attribute deaths to the virus since Medicare offers a 20% premium for COVID-19 patients.
Economist John Lott, Jr. and Dr. Timothy Craig Allen, governor of the College of American Pathologists report that this financial incentive causes "some doctors to feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to coronavirus . . . to make it look a little bit worse than it is." < Even when you think they can't go any lower, it is ALWAYS ABOUT THE MONEY.
In late May of this year, in Minnesota, of the 741 deaths attributed to COVID-19, only 41% listed the virus as a "primary cause." I & I wonders, "by that standard, George Floyd . . . who tested positive before he died in police custody could have been counted as a COVID-19 fatality."
In New York, when 10,000 fatalities were reported in May The New York Times revealed that "3700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus…had never tested positive."
Indeed, six people said to have died of the virus in Washington State really succumbed to gunshot wounds.
So, are we witnessing a second wave of the virus or just a media induced panic? We will know more in a few weeks if we see if the death toll rises in delayed synchronicity with the rise in new cases.
It may be that a great many of the new cases are among young people who will recover quickly, or that newer therapeutic procedures can prevent their deaths.
Perhaps we'll find ourselves closing everything down when our real viral enemy is no worse than a bad flu epidemic.
Or not? We’ll see.
MY TAKE: Everything during an election year is about trying to win the elections.
By Dick Morris Friday, 26 June 2020
Democrats want, above all else, for President Donald Trump to be defeated.
Part of their plan is to so paralyze the country with fear of the virus as to delay any economic recovery until after Election Day in November.
Right now, the glass can be seen as half full or half empty. Virus deaths are down sharply while new cases and hospitalizations, particularly in states that never really closed down during the initial outbreak, are up.
The Trump administration says that the increase in cases is driven by an increase in testing, while pointing out that a disproportionate portion of those who test positive are younger people, not likely to die of the disease.
For them, it's more like a severe case of the ordinary flu.
The I & I editorial board, a spinoff of former writers for Investors Business Daily, feeds the narrative that the media is overplaying the virus’ comeback to trip up President Trump.
They write "the key gauge to watch is deaths [from COVID-19]. They’ve been falling since April and there’s strong reason to believe they’re lower than the official count suggests. < BTW in TEXAS only a third of the deaths listed as causes by COVID-19 have been confirmed. The other two-thirds the primary cause of death was something else.
Liberals counter that deaths are a lagging indicator since new infections take two weeks to manifest and even longer to be fatal.
Goldman-Sachs state level tracker shows that the number of coronavirus tests has increased 23% in two weeks, but he number of positive results is up by just 6.2%.
During that period, deaths are down by 12%.
As I & I writes, "CDC’s own estimates for what’s called the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) is about 0.26%. By contrast the rate for the regular flu is 0.1%, not much lower."
The I & I editorial also assails against the prevailing wind by saying that the official death rate may be itself overblown with many deaths reported to be due to the virus that are caused partially or entirely by something else.
Dr. Deborah L. Birx noted last month that the CDC death counts were 25% too high.
There is, of course, a financial incentive for healthcare institutions to attribute deaths to the virus since Medicare offers a 20% premium for COVID-19 patients.
Economist John Lott, Jr. and Dr. Timothy Craig Allen, governor of the College of American Pathologists report that this financial incentive causes "some doctors to feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to coronavirus . . . to make it look a little bit worse than it is." < Even when you think they can't go any lower, it is ALWAYS ABOUT THE MONEY.
In late May of this year, in Minnesota, of the 741 deaths attributed to COVID-19, only 41% listed the virus as a "primary cause." I & I wonders, "by that standard, George Floyd . . . who tested positive before he died in police custody could have been counted as a COVID-19 fatality."
In New York, when 10,000 fatalities were reported in May The New York Times revealed that "3700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus…had never tested positive."
Indeed, six people said to have died of the virus in Washington State really succumbed to gunshot wounds.
So, are we witnessing a second wave of the virus or just a media induced panic? We will know more in a few weeks if we see if the death toll rises in delayed synchronicity with the rise in new cases.
It may be that a great many of the new cases are among young people who will recover quickly, or that newer therapeutic procedures can prevent their deaths.
Perhaps we'll find ourselves closing everything down when our real viral enemy is no worse than a bad flu epidemic.
Or not? We’ll see.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
More misinformation.< BTW in TEXAS only a third of the deaths listed as causes by COVID-19 have been confirmed. The other two-thirds the primary cause of death was something else.
You obviously lack relevant knowledge about how death certificates are completed. In traditional practice, the physician certifying the death stated the "immediate cause," and then up to three conditions that, sequentially, were believed to have led to the immediate cause. More recently, electronic reporting (when used) calls for listing up to four conditions believed "directly" causative of the death, and another category of causes believed to be contributory to the death. All are "causes" of the death.
COVID-19 can cause death in a number of ways, starting with a variety of problems like pulmonary compromise, clotting, stroke, sepsis, shock, septic shock, et al, all of which can ultimately lead to death. There are no objective standards doctors must follow (and doctors receive little or no training) in how they denote the chain of causation and where, in the chain, COVID-19 might be listed (or even listed at all).
A typical COVID-19 patient that unfortunately does not survive might, over a period of 2 weeks after becoming infected, first experience pulmonary compromise, then septic shock, then cardio-pulmonary arrest, causing death. In such case the death certificate might be completed any number of ways. A traditional death certificate for that might read:
Immediate cause: cardio-pulmonary arrest,
due to or as a consequence of: septic shock,
due to or as a consequence of: pulmonary compromise,
due to or as a consequence of: COVID-19.
A more modern electronic death certificate now in use in some places would just call for the doctor to enter up to four conditions believed to have "directly caused" the death, and then any additional conditions believed to have "contributed to" the death. Such a certificate might list COVID-19 either in the first or only in the second category, even though it began a cascade of conditions that led to the death.
You, however, would call such a death not really caused by Covid-19, or "unconfirmed" (by whom?) because Covid-19 isn't listed as the "primary" (there's no such thing -- you must mean "immediate") cause of death. In such a case, however, were it not for Covid-19 the patient would not have gone into the cascade of conditions that led to the death.
Your claim that only a third of deaths in Texas listed as having been caused by COVID-19 "have been confirmed" (because in ) "the other two-thirds the primary cause of death was something else" is utterly false. Even your terminology ("primary") is wrong.
People should get their information about Texas Covid-19 death statistics from Texas public health authorities, not this forum (unfortunately).
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
I have been to the Texas Department of State Health Services and downloaded their spreadsheets on 6/26/20:
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
A couple of issues:
First, it looks like data is recorded by Date of Report (DOR) rather than by Date of Incidence (DOI). So, new positive cases and deaths are recorded on the date at which it is reported to the State, not on the date at which the test was taken, or by the date on which the death occurred. All data need to be logged by DOI so we can see the trends in real time. Logging by DOR, makes trends unclear and the data susceptible to administrative backlogs and potential administrative/political manipulation. This is at best sloppy and clearly unacceptable (and I think unethical) this far into the crisis.
Second, the file titled “CaseCountData” has a tab “Tests by day” that is headed with “Testing and Positivity Rate (Previous 7 Days) over Time as of 6/25 at 3:00 PM CST” has daily testing information by DOR.
The first 3 columns are: cumulative viral tests, cumulative antibody tests, cumulative total tests (viral + antibody). The next column is “Covid-19 positivity Rate” expressed as a %. The next 3 columns are daily, viral, antibody and total tests. These are not “daily” numbers, but a 7-day average of the current day plus the prior 6 days. Don’t know why a 7-day average is meaningful when we have no idea when the tests were actually taken.
I can calculate daily changes in testing by the taking difference between today’s cumulative and yesterday’s cumulative. But, nowhere have I found the actual number of daily positive tests. It might be inferred by multiplying today’s COVID-19 Positivity Rate of 11.76% (for 6/24/20) times WHAT? – the 7-day average of daily tests, or the number of daily tests calculated by the difference in daily cumulative data. There is as much as a factor of 2 difference going both ways.
So, the positive case rate cannot be directly determined from the TDSH data.
Second, TDSH has been chasing “hotspots: - population groups with known infections – like prisons with a large percentage of infections and mostly asymptomatic. That does not represent the population at large and should not be used to determine the current trends of infection. It is unethical to not clearly identify the hotspot data vs that of the general population.
Third, there is no indication of how the results of the antibody tests are being handled. No mention is made of how many tests were positive for antibodies. Some states have added positive antibody results to the positive viral case count. To do so, without explicitly stating the number of positive antibody tests, is unethical.
Why am I calling these actions unethical? Because bad methodologies and vague data (like that presented by TDSH) are being used to terrorize the general population.
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
A couple of issues:
First, it looks like data is recorded by Date of Report (DOR) rather than by Date of Incidence (DOI). So, new positive cases and deaths are recorded on the date at which it is reported to the State, not on the date at which the test was taken, or by the date on which the death occurred. All data need to be logged by DOI so we can see the trends in real time. Logging by DOR, makes trends unclear and the data susceptible to administrative backlogs and potential administrative/political manipulation. This is at best sloppy and clearly unacceptable (and I think unethical) this far into the crisis.
Second, the file titled “CaseCountData” has a tab “Tests by day” that is headed with “Testing and Positivity Rate (Previous 7 Days) over Time as of 6/25 at 3:00 PM CST” has daily testing information by DOR.
The first 3 columns are: cumulative viral tests, cumulative antibody tests, cumulative total tests (viral + antibody). The next column is “Covid-19 positivity Rate” expressed as a %. The next 3 columns are daily, viral, antibody and total tests. These are not “daily” numbers, but a 7-day average of the current day plus the prior 6 days. Don’t know why a 7-day average is meaningful when we have no idea when the tests were actually taken.
I can calculate daily changes in testing by the taking difference between today’s cumulative and yesterday’s cumulative. But, nowhere have I found the actual number of daily positive tests. It might be inferred by multiplying today’s COVID-19 Positivity Rate of 11.76% (for 6/24/20) times WHAT? – the 7-day average of daily tests, or the number of daily tests calculated by the difference in daily cumulative data. There is as much as a factor of 2 difference going both ways.
So, the positive case rate cannot be directly determined from the TDSH data.
Second, TDSH has been chasing “hotspots: - population groups with known infections – like prisons with a large percentage of infections and mostly asymptomatic. That does not represent the population at large and should not be used to determine the current trends of infection. It is unethical to not clearly identify the hotspot data vs that of the general population.
Third, there is no indication of how the results of the antibody tests are being handled. No mention is made of how many tests were positive for antibodies. Some states have added positive antibody results to the positive viral case count. To do so, without explicitly stating the number of positive antibody tests, is unethical.
Why am I calling these actions unethical? Because bad methodologies and vague data (like that presented by TDSH) are being used to terrorize the general population.
Re: COViD-19 Virus Update - June 23
Have to correct myself. I found the daily new cases and cumulative positive antibody tests. I can't exactly match the % positive calculations, but I get close.
My comments about DOI, chasing hotspots and not being clear about how the antibody results are handled, stand.
My comments about DOI, chasing hotspots and not being clear about how the antibody results are handled, stand.