EIA - Petroleum Status Report - July 8

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 3, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.3 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2020 which was 315,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries
operated at 77.5% of their operable capacity last week. < Slow but sure, refiners are heading up to 90% capacity, which is where they should be this time of year.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.4 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 6.6 million barrels per day, 8.5% less than the same four-week period last year. < Increase in imports is why crude oil inventories went up.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 729,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 72,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 539.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 18% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels last week and are about 8% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week and are about 27% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are about 7% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 9.8 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 17.8 million barrels a day, down by 15.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, down by 12.5% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.5 million barrels a day more than the past four weeks, down by 10.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 57.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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MY TAKE:
> The key stat is refinery utilization. Refiners are the consumers of crude oil and they base their run rates on their view of demand for refined products.
> When rising imports is the reason why crude oil inventories went up, it is good thing. Moving oil from floating storage to onshore tanks is not an increase in global crude oil inventories.
> In the EIA's detailed report, Days of Supply for crude oil, gasoline and jet fuel all went lower. Gasoline is now below 30 days of supply, which is normal of this time of year.
> EIA estimate is that U.S. oil production is holding flat at 11 million BOPD, down 2 million BOPD since March.