EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Sept 2

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 28, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 28, 2020 which was 0.8 million barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 76.7% of their operable capacity last week. < Hurricane Laura caused several refineries to shut down.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 4.9 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.0 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 5.5 million barrels per day, 20.2% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 577,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 166,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 498.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 14% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 23% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.8 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.3 million barrels a day, down by 15.9% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 8.9% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.1% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 47.1% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Under-investment in supply, “Chickens” are coming home to roost

Paul Sankey is a well-known securities analyst, formerly with a big firm-Mizuho, and now on his own. I’ve followed him for years. Sankey has some interesting ideas that coincide with my own. Chief among them is the idea that the oil market is approaching a precipice of supply short-fall that will simply be breath-taking when its full effects land out.

Well written: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... d-Out.html

[dan_s]

Aegis Energy:
"EIA reported a draw of -9362 MBbls in U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending 8/28/2020. This was larger than the average estimate of -2137 MBbls as reported by Bloomberg. Prices were up five minutes following the announcement, to $42.47, from $42.33 just before 9:30am. Inventories for the US are now at a surplus of 70.65 MBbls to last year and a surplus of 56.36 MBbls to the five-year average."

Thanks to Hurricane Laura's impact on GOM production, we should see another large draw from storage next week. My "SWAG" is that U.S. crude oil storage level will be back within the 5-year range sometime in November. Over 90% of the oil shut in during April & May was back online by the end of August. Some will not comeback at all. Natural depletion will put U.S. oil & gas production on steady decline until the active rig count triples.