Oil demand and other news

[dan_s]

On September 10 Platts reported that global oil demand will probably decline 8.1 MMBopd this year amid the coronavirus pandemic and is unlikely to get back to 2019 levels before 2022, according to the head of global analytics at S&P Global Platts at a media roundtable ahead of the APPEC 2020 conference in Singapore. S&P Global Platts is forecasting oil demand growth of 6.3 MMBopd in 2021.

On September 11 Reuters reported that the United Kingdom’s GDP rose by 6.6% in July vs. June levels, down 11.7% year over year, and industrial output rose by 5.2% in July vs. June levels, down 7.8% year over year, according to its Office of National Statistics.

On September 11 Platts reported that China's domestic vehicle sales surged 12% year over year in August and were expected to continue rising through the traditional September-October peak season as government stimulus policies, including the expansion of new energy vehicle initiatives into the countryside, increase buying interest for both passenger and commercial vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

On September 11 Bloomberg reported that Kuwait Petroleum set the official selling price of October Export Blend crude at a discount of $0.50/Bbl to the Oman-Dubai average, according to an emailed statement, which compares with a $0.70/Bbl premium for September.

On September 11 Reuters reported a debate within Iraq over whether it should ask to be exempt from OPEC+ oil supply cuts has resurfaced as low prices squeeze its finances, challenging a government struggling to tackle the destruction of years of war and rampant corruption. OPEC's second-biggest producer, Iraq has failed in the past to fully comply with OPEC+ oil output reductions, pumping above its production targets since the pact was first signed in 2016 between OPEC and its allies led by Russia. "Iraq always believed they were not properly treated in December 2016 when they were not exempted. As the economy continues to reel from low prices this issue keeps resurfacing," said an OPEC source. Iraq's economy and oil sector were battered by years of wars, sanctions and a stubborn Islamist insurgency triggered by the U.S. invasion. Baghdad complained it had struggled to revive its stagnating oil industry, at a time where other OPEC members benefited and boosted their market share. A senior Iraqi official with knowledge of the talks said there were differing views between the oil ministry and the prime minister's office over whether to fully comply with the cuts or ask for an exemption for next year. The oil ministry wants to ask for an exemption, the official, who declined to be identified, said, while officials in the prime minister's office insist on compliance.