Spike in demand for U.S. Natural Gas

[dan_s]

The reason that U.S. natural gas prices are going a lot higher, "The math does not work."

From EIA's October 6, 2020 STEO report: "EIA estimates that U.S. LNG exports averaged 4.9 Bcf/d in September, an increase of 1.2 Bcf/d from August. Higher global forward prices indicate improving netbacks for buyers of U.S. LNG in European and Asian markets for the upcoming fall and winter seasons. The increased prices come amid expectations of natural gas demand recovery and potential LNG supply reductions because of maintenance at the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia. EIA forecasts that U.S. LNG exports will return to pre-COVID levels by November 2020 and will average more than 9.0 Bcf/d from December 2020 through February 2021."

Per EIA:
> U.S. dry ngas production was 93.1 Bcfpd in 2019, on-track to 90.6 Bcfpd in 2020 and estimated to decline to 86.8 Bcfpd in 2021
> U.S. domestic demand for ngas was 84.8 Bcfpd in 2019, on-track to 83.7 Bcfpd in 2020 and will s/b back to ~85 Bcfpd in 2021

So, in 2021 the U.S. will have less than 2 Bcfpd to export.
> Exports of U.S. ngas were 12.9 Bcfpd in 2019: 7.8 Bcfpd via pipeline to Canada & Mexico and 5.1 Bcfpd of LNG exports.

U.S. LNG export capacity is NOW 9.5 Bcfpd and LNG exports are expected to average 9.0 Bcfpd in December to February. < All of our gas in storage is going to be wiped out by the end of March.