COViD-19 Update on what is really important - Oct 19

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:32 pm

The media continues to report the number of people that have tested positive each day because that is the number that generates the most FEAR. The "Click Bait" of COVID-19 and Trump Bashing are the only things keeping CNN and MSNBC on the air. IMO opinion, the number of people who test positive (a flawed stat to begin with) is not significant to judging where we stand in the pandemic. The number of people hospitalized today is the most important stat because the biggest concern going forward is the risk of our healthcare system being overwhelmed.

Here is an update from Bank of American Equity Research:

The number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 in the U.S. now stands at 37,308 (as of October 18). It is 30% above the recent low 25 days ago on September 20th . At the same time the Covid-19 test positivity rate remains on the rise reaching 5.2%, up from the recent low of 4.4%. We remain tactically underweight on the thesis that investors will focus on the worrisome increase in daily new Covid-19 cases. However, we are actually seeing very encouraging the weekly change in number of people hospitalized with Covid-19 has declined to 2,986 from the peak of 4,188 as recently as Sunday. Clearly the Coronavirus is having a hard time spreading (to high risk individuals) given some level of immunity and now a high level of expertise in treating it.

Covid vs. Confidence. NFIB Small business optimism highlights the importance of overall Covid data. Sharp improvement in Covid-19 (lower number of people being hospitalized) in August and September sent this indicator back to rebound to pre-crisis level.
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In our local paper this morning for Fort Bend County (SW of Houston with a population of over 880,000) they said only 28 people are currently hospitalized in the county for COVID-19, 9 in ICU and 19 in general areas. In Fort Bend County 17,126 people have tested positive for Covid-19 and 293 have died. (880,000-293)/880,000 = 99.967% of Fort Bend Country residence than have not died from Covid-19. < This stat is not the "Click Bait" that the media likes, so it is not ever reported.