EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 18

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,958 Bcf as of Friday, November 13, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 31 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 293 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 231 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,727 Bcf.
At 3,958 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The build was larger than expected, common for the 2nd week of November. It should be the final build as draws begin mid-November. A few months ago, there was fear that storage would peak at ~4,200 Bcf before winter draws began.

During last year's extremely mild winter 1,651 Bcf was taken from storage. This winter's draws should be much larger (over 2,000 Bcf) since U.S. gas production is down more than 5 Bcfpd and LNG exports s/b up 3-5 Bcfpd.

Over the last five years storage at the end of the winter heating seasons ranged from 2,477 Bcf in April 2016 to 1,281 Bcf in April 2018 followed by 1,107 Bcf in March 2019. Heading into the winter of 2018-2019 we saw ngas prices spike to over $4.50 (see slide 14 of my 11/14 podcast).

Keep in mind that demand for U.S. ngas was 99.9 Bcfpd in 2019 and today our production is less than 91 Bcfpd. Gas in storage will get us through this winter, but if storage is drawn way down the next winter could be a big problem.