Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 44c to $42.86/Bbl, and Brent is up 64c to $45.60/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 4.4c to $2.694/MMBtu.
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JAN 21) was up $0.64 on the day, to settle at $43.06/Bbl. < Each close over $42 makes $41.50 a stronger support level.
> NG prompt month (DEC 20) was up $0.061 on the day, to settle at $2.711/MMBtu.
Aegis Energy morning notes:
>WTI is up 44c to $42.86/Bbl, and Brent is up 64c to $45.60/Bbl
> Crude prices have hit a 12-week high, reaching its strongest levels since early September
> A rebel group based in Yemen struck an Aramco fuel-distribution center, though the attack has yet to be confirmed by official sources. Yemen Rebels claim a missile attack on a Saudi Aramco facility. The Houthis hit a fuel-distribution center in Jeddah with a Quds 2 rocket (which they got from Iran), according to a statement from the group. Attacks by Houthi forces, who control most of north Yemen, have escalated since late May when a truce prompted by the novel coronavirus pandemic expired, according to Reuters.
> China refineries are nearing record processing rates as demand for fuels shrink globally amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases
> China’s implied crude stocks had the first drop since 2017
The country drew down its stockpiles last month by around 201 MBbl, representing a bright spot in an otherwise grim global demand picture. China’s fuel exports jump to a six-month high, bolstered by record crude-processing to clear export quotas.
Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 23
Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 23
Last edited by dan_s on Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 23
Natural Gas Market news from Aegis Energy:
Natural gas is up 4.4c to $2.694/MMBtu
Natural gas futures are higher this morning as a cooler weather pattern emerged in the forecast
The next two weeks of forecasts showed a gain of just over two heating degree days from Friday’s weather model runs
Gas production continues to remain buoyant, nearly reaching 92 Bcf/d for the Lower 48, according to Platts data < Compares to U.S. marketed gas production of over 104 Bcf/d in December, 2019.
A panel from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an O&G industry group, says small regulatory changes that affect processes like taxes, capital access and time needed for project approval are at risk from a Biden administration – not fracking. Biden has been vague on details of a possible ban on fracking and permitting on Federal lands.
The API’s chief economist Dean Freeman at the conference said “You’re talking about a couple of million barrels a day of less production…and as a result of that, $700 billion of GDP decline through 2023,” ‘You’re talking big job losses, nearly a million jobs through the entire economy by 2022.” He went on to say that if the republicans hold the two Georgia Senate seats that are headed to a runoff then a split U.S. Congress would mitigate the potential for major taxes.
Natural gas is up 4.4c to $2.694/MMBtu
Natural gas futures are higher this morning as a cooler weather pattern emerged in the forecast
The next two weeks of forecasts showed a gain of just over two heating degree days from Friday’s weather model runs
Gas production continues to remain buoyant, nearly reaching 92 Bcf/d for the Lower 48, according to Platts data < Compares to U.S. marketed gas production of over 104 Bcf/d in December, 2019.
A panel from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an O&G industry group, says small regulatory changes that affect processes like taxes, capital access and time needed for project approval are at risk from a Biden administration – not fracking. Biden has been vague on details of a possible ban on fracking and permitting on Federal lands.
The API’s chief economist Dean Freeman at the conference said “You’re talking about a couple of million barrels a day of less production…and as a result of that, $700 billion of GDP decline through 2023,” ‘You’re talking big job losses, nearly a million jobs through the entire economy by 2022.” He went on to say that if the republicans hold the two Georgia Senate seats that are headed to a runoff then a split U.S. Congress would mitigate the potential for major taxes.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 23
<<“You’re talking about a couple of million barrels a day of less production>> (Aegis)
You're also talking about significant rise in pricing power--desperately needed.
You're also talking about significant rise in pricing power--desperately needed.
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 23
Oil Dynamics Look More Bullish As Vaccine Optimism Rises
By Phil Flynn (Nov 23, 2020 08:54AM ET)
More news on COVID 19 vaccines is raising oil demand prospects in the short term and longer-term has oil trading at a three month high, and the best is yet to come. Global supplies have tightened, and oil production has fallen, and more robust economic data and better than expected demand in Asia are starting to bolster prices. OPEC meets on November 30 and tries to decide whether their extension of production cuts will be extended for 3 or 6 months. With a vaccine on the horizon, the dynamics for oil look a lot more bullish.
The Wall Street Journal reports that, “Astras Zeneca AZN 2.35% PLC and the University of Oxford said their COVID-19 vaccine was as much as 90% effective in preventing infections without serious side effects in large clinical trials, boosting hopes that a third Western-developed shot could be authorized for use before the end of the year. The partners said Monday that there were no serious safety events related to the vaccine and that it was well tolerated across different dosing regimens. Its efficacy ranged from 62% to 90% depending on the dosage given, with an average of 70%, they said. The results bode well for the near-term availability of the third vaccine to battle Covid-19 after a shot created by Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Inc. and one made jointly by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) PFE 1.41% and Germany’sBioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) SE BNTX 9.63% were found to be more than 90% effective in their late-stage trials. Pfizer and BioNTech last week said they had asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to permit the use of their vaccine.
China and Russia have both deployed their vaccines at home and overseas. Chinese authorities have inoculated nearly one million Chinese people with a vaccine from one state company, though it has yet to provide concrete clinical evidence of its efficacy. According to the journal, Russia has said its homegrown vaccine has an efficacy rate above 90%.
This news is significant. Oil demand is already rising in China and may start rising in other parts of the world as the expectations for returning to normalcy start to get priced in. We will see a supply deficit in the second half of the year, and the curve is starting to price that in as well.
S&P Platts is reporting that China’s gasoline exports hit a fresh record high of 1.91 million mt in October, surging 63.9% on the month, data from the General Administration of Customs released on late November 23 showed. This was marginally higher from the last record of 1.90 million mt registered in April.
It comes at a time when domestic supply was in a surplus state, prompting refineries to look toward the overseas market. Gasoline demand in the domestic market has started to weigh down after the National Day holiday in early October. As a result, state refiners have to sell more in the overseas market even though the domestic market offered better margins, according to market sources. On the other hand, the gasoil exports also recovered to a six-month high of 2.17 million mt, or a growth of 81.7% from 1.19 million mt in September. It also marked the third consecutive monthly rise since July. With the jet fuel demand remaining weak worldwide, most refineries continue to cut the jet fuel output by mixing more jet fuel yields into the production of gasoil, thus leaving more gasoil to be exported. This was echoed by PetroChina’s officials earlier in November, with some of the company’s refineries increasing gasoil exports from October.
Natural gas is looking like it is trying to find a bottom. Look to put on your winter calls. < The weather forecast now shows a colder than normal first half of December for the eastern U.S.
By Phil Flynn (Nov 23, 2020 08:54AM ET)
More news on COVID 19 vaccines is raising oil demand prospects in the short term and longer-term has oil trading at a three month high, and the best is yet to come. Global supplies have tightened, and oil production has fallen, and more robust economic data and better than expected demand in Asia are starting to bolster prices. OPEC meets on November 30 and tries to decide whether their extension of production cuts will be extended for 3 or 6 months. With a vaccine on the horizon, the dynamics for oil look a lot more bullish.
The Wall Street Journal reports that, “Astras Zeneca AZN 2.35% PLC and the University of Oxford said their COVID-19 vaccine was as much as 90% effective in preventing infections without serious side effects in large clinical trials, boosting hopes that a third Western-developed shot could be authorized for use before the end of the year. The partners said Monday that there were no serious safety events related to the vaccine and that it was well tolerated across different dosing regimens. Its efficacy ranged from 62% to 90% depending on the dosage given, with an average of 70%, they said. The results bode well for the near-term availability of the third vaccine to battle Covid-19 after a shot created by Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Inc. and one made jointly by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) PFE 1.41% and Germany’sBioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) SE BNTX 9.63% were found to be more than 90% effective in their late-stage trials. Pfizer and BioNTech last week said they had asked the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to permit the use of their vaccine.
China and Russia have both deployed their vaccines at home and overseas. Chinese authorities have inoculated nearly one million Chinese people with a vaccine from one state company, though it has yet to provide concrete clinical evidence of its efficacy. According to the journal, Russia has said its homegrown vaccine has an efficacy rate above 90%.
This news is significant. Oil demand is already rising in China and may start rising in other parts of the world as the expectations for returning to normalcy start to get priced in. We will see a supply deficit in the second half of the year, and the curve is starting to price that in as well.
S&P Platts is reporting that China’s gasoline exports hit a fresh record high of 1.91 million mt in October, surging 63.9% on the month, data from the General Administration of Customs released on late November 23 showed. This was marginally higher from the last record of 1.90 million mt registered in April.
It comes at a time when domestic supply was in a surplus state, prompting refineries to look toward the overseas market. Gasoline demand in the domestic market has started to weigh down after the National Day holiday in early October. As a result, state refiners have to sell more in the overseas market even though the domestic market offered better margins, according to market sources. On the other hand, the gasoil exports also recovered to a six-month high of 2.17 million mt, or a growth of 81.7% from 1.19 million mt in September. It also marked the third consecutive monthly rise since July. With the jet fuel demand remaining weak worldwide, most refineries continue to cut the jet fuel output by mixing more jet fuel yields into the production of gasoil, thus leaving more gasoil to be exported. This was echoed by PetroChina’s officials earlier in November, with some of the company’s refineries increasing gasoil exports from October.
Natural gas is looking like it is trying to find a bottom. Look to put on your winter calls. < The weather forecast now shows a colder than normal first half of December for the eastern U.S.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group