The EIA's 941 report is out. It shows actual U.S. oil production based on state reports for September. This is our first look at actual production for September. EIA's weekly estimates are just wild ass guesses ("WAGs") based on formulas.
September actual production was 10,860,000 per day which is exactly 2,000,000 BOPD less than the U.S. peak production of 12,860,000 in November, 2019.
The increase from 10,574,000 in August is the result of post-hurricane shut-ins coming back online.
Q4 production likely to be in the 10,500,000 to 11,000,000 BOPD range as upstream companies push to get lots of DUC wells completed, so they can be included in year-end reserve reports. I expect a steady decline in U.S. oil and gas production in Q1 2021, primarily weather related and sharp drop in well completions during the winter.
U.S. oil production down 2 million bpd since Nov 2019
U.S. oil production down 2 million bpd since Nov 2019
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group