Five things that will impact oil markets in 2021

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dan_s
Posts: 37359
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Five things that will impact oil markets in 2021

Post by dan_s »

Ellen is super smart: https://www.investing.com/analysis/5-oi ... -200549291

Ellen Wald and I both write articles for OilPrice.com She is much smarter but I have more industry experience.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 37359
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Five things that will impact oil markets in 2021

Post by dan_s »

More people = More demand for energy

On the day I was born (3/3/1954) there were approximately 2,636,356,000 million people on Earth.
This morning (1/1/2021) the Earth's human population surpassed 7,836,000,000 million. Covid-19 did not slow down population growth, primarily because many Covid Deaths were people who were going to die this year anyway and the death rate was very low in young people.

Go here to find out how many people were alive the day you were born:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... CMP=twt_gu

At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.

A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in 30 years (1960), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion. + another 1.8 billion in the last 20 years.
Part of the reason has been a significant increase in the average age of death. A hundred years ago, few people lived beyond 60. Now most of us will live beyond 80.
In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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